The Power and the Money

Propaganda in the age of artificial intelligence

Have you ever watched television commercials from the 1950s? They seem crude and unpersuasive, even silly. Political propaganda from the 1930s even more so and don’t get me started on print adverts from the 19th century. They actually persuaded people?

Well, yes, they probably did. Our culture has evolved in the presence of ever-more sophisticated advertising. Our defense mechanisms have also risen; ads either have to very sophisticated or do nothing more than present basic information in order to succeed. (See “Len the Plumber” for an example of the latter. All it does it tell you that you can get same-day service at that number; considering the cost of searching for a same-day plumber, it gets business despite presenting no information other than that it exists. And an annoying earwig to make sure you do not forget.)

New technology, however, allows for new ways to get around our cultural immune systems. We have seen the rise of Fox (cable television being the technology)  and fake news (going through social media). But two things are about to make the situation incredibly worse. (Hat tip: Will Baird.)

1. It is getting easier and easier to fake video of people saying things that they never actually said. It is no coincidence that the researchers at the link used footage of President Obama to create their fake clip. 
2. It is getting easier and easier to automate fake online comments and reviews, aka “crowdturfing.” The authors propose some potential fixes which might work for review websites ... but maybe not so much for social media. 

I am fairly sure democracy can survive these innovations. I am also fairly sure that democracies will work less well and lose legitimacy because of them. My worry is that our cultural immune systems will never adapt, or worse yet, adapt by crawling into our own epistemic fortresses.

The 2020 election is shaping up to be awful; 2024 more so; and I do not want to think about 2028 or 2032, when my children will be able to vote. 

Anyone able to provide an optimistic counterargument? Surely some techno-optimists are left, or any form of optimist, really. 

Vox congratulates The Deuce on attention to detail under a big picture showing the opposite

So, Vox wrote a good review of the new HBO series, The Deuce. And it does sound like a good show. But then they reviewer blows up their credibility. With a caption reading  “The series’ attention to detail is impressive,” they then show this picture:

The mistake, it jumps out at you if you lived in or regularly visited Manhattan during the 1970s (or much of the 1980s, for that matter), and it is not forgivable. Attention to detail my ass.

Stop, renovate, and list ‘em

I am not sure why the New Yorker thought it germane to satirize Vanilla Ice as a business consultant. Is he making some sort of comeback of which I am unaware? Still, the satire is funny. 

But as my friend Guy Tower pointed out to me, Vanilla Ice is actually a moderately successful businessman in real estate.  He buys homes in Florida, fixes them up and flips them. You can get his advice on TV! If you really want to know, go to vanillaicerealestate.com. 

“Stop, renovate and list them,” quoth the Tower.

Liveblogging the third debate

Why? I don't know. I don't quite feel the dread of last time, but I'm not happy.

10:39:  I am in shock that the Republican nominee refused to accept the results of the election. 

10:36:  Why 

10:31:  My wife: "Replace it with what??"

10:21:  I couldn't follow Trump there. 

10:08:  The banana republic talk is back. Oh sweet Mary.

1o:07:  Oh shit

10:05:  We're back to one senator being able to change the law.

10:04: Chris Wallace is doing a great job.

10:01:  Here it comes. The interruption.

9:59:  She didn't add the Central Park Five.

9:55:  He just caught himself. I am surprised.

9:52:  My wife, who wanted to vote for John Kasich, can't watch this. "Blood boiling."

9:43:  Was that a bait? "My husband"

9:41:  Why is saying that there will be more free trade than ever? I'm at a loss here.

9:40:  Why is he going back to NATO and Saudi Arabia?

9:30: I have nothing to say.

9:27:  I am bemused at Trump pointing out the Obama deportations. 

9:25: Go Chris Wallace!

9:25:  Trump's poker face is interesting.

9:23:  I am not clear as to why Trump thinks that federal authorities are refusing to arrest "bad hombres."

9:21:  Trump seems very reasonable in comparison. 

9:19:  Hillary's response to Trump's overheated rhetoric works well for me. She's making a Libertarian case.

9:09:  "I truly don't think will happen." That's odd. He's calm, though.

Liveblogging the debate?

Maybe. Last time I added some value (on VAT, or infrastructure costs) but this time I am just settling to watch something I don't want to watch.

10:33: Trump did not crash and burn.

10:29: No direct questions about climate change.

10:26: This was unpleasant to watch. I do not know if she should have gone more on offense.

10:21: Black Americans living in in an inner city:

10:16: Why does he repeat "Latino" and "Hispanic" in the same sentence?

10:10: You cannot actually seize and occupy an entire city in a sneak attack.

10:08: Both moderators are great.

9:55:  He thinks like a dictator. How can one Senator change the tax code?

9:48:  I don't think there's anything wrong with a politician being willing to compromise while declaring that they are not. But in modern American culture, that's a hard thing to defend. Which really is sad.

9:47:  It would be an act of war to forcibly deport people into a sovereign state that did not want them to enter. 

9:38:  AFAIK, Trump is lying right now; there is no evidence that anyone knew what the San Bernadino terrorists were planning.

9:37:  It sounds like Trump is proposing one giant national insurance exchange.

9:36:  Great follow-up!

9:31:  The similarities between Donald Trump and Hugo Chávez are striking.

9:28:  The interruptions.

9:24:  Oh my God.

9:23:  This is unprecedented. A candidate is threatening another candidate with the use of federal authority if she loses.

9:18:  I am very sad listening to this, especially about the case that Hillary was assigned to defend.

9:16:  "The African Americans." The definite article is strange.

9:13:  My emotions are somber right now.

9:09:  So far, so calm.

9:05:  No handshakes.

9:04:  I feel a sinking sensation. Physically.

Eurovision, missed

It tells you how much I care about Eurovision that I completely forgot to post this and let it linger in cloud purgatory.

 

I have no desire to watch the Eurovision song contest by myself. I have no desire to watch the Eurovision song contest with my family. I have no desire to watch the Eurovision song contest with anyone who has not previously watched the Eurovision song contest. I have never in fact watching the Eurovision song contest.

But I would watch it with Doug Muir. I sorely miss his liveblogging of the event. His drunk liveblogging, even better! 

Liveblogging the debate

I'm going to try to add value.

10:40:  Next time I will tweet. Gah, twitter.

10:38:  Whew. He will accept a defeat.

10:37:  Sweet Mary mother of Christ that Mr. Holt felt the need to ask that question. Oh my God. 

10:30:  It is true that B-52s are old, but they are still awesome:

10:28:  “I would certainly not do first strike ... I would certainly not take anything off the table.” Huh? And now he wants us to outsource North Korea policy to China.

10:27:  “We can’t defend Japan.” WTF?

10:26: “Your president.” Oh boy. He can’t help himself.

10:16:  She is ignoring the “take the oil” comment. Mistake? I really have no goddamned idea. You can’t, of course, “take the oil” with only 10,000 troops, considering as the oil needs to be exported through hostile territory. You also can’t, well, take Syrian oil wells by occupying Iraq; the Islamic State’s oil revenues come from Syria.

10:11:  That 400-pound hacker image is going to be very hard to wash out of my mind. 

10:09:  Was it a missed opportunity to miss talking about the Central Park Five? I suppose not; after all, I had only just moved to California when it all happened. It probably doesn't resonate for most of the country.

10:06:  I have no idea how this would fly in a room of white swing voters. It isn’t going over well in a room full of black people.

10:02: “I say nothing.” Whoa! That was ... whoa. Really? Nothing to say to black people about birtherism?

9:59: “You decided to stay home.” Asshole. “I think Donald just criticized me for preparing for this debate.” Dis!

9:57: It’s kind of amazing that he just denied that murders fell in NYC after stop-and-frisk ended. Still, in general, this is surprisingly civil.

9:56: If she wanted to, she could hit him here with the 1989 ad he took out about the Central Park Five. 

9:55: In a hellhole:

9:46:  Secretary Clinton doesn’t want to use the words “law and order”?

9:43:  There is in fact an issue with the cost of public works construction in the United States. I don’t hear any serious solutions, but there is a real issue here. 

9:43: “If I don’t get there one way, I’m gonna get to Pennsylvania Avenue another.” 

9:39:  I think Trump just pitched one down the middle at Secretary Clinton about the Iraq War.

9:36:  Conflicts of interest.

9:33:  Thank you Mr. Holt, for calling Trump on the audit bullshit. Will Hillary call him out that he has provided no proof about the audit?

9:31:  “A big fat ugly bubble ... the Fed is doing political!”

9:29:  I am at a bit of a loss about Trump's shouting. I have to say I didn’t expect that.

9:26: Fighting ISIS her entire adult life?

9:24:  I should be tweeting this, no?

9:21:  How do Trump’s interruptions come across?

9:18:  Trump is referring to Solyndra. The program as a whole made money for the U.S.

9:16: I am surprised that she isn’t following up on the fact that Trump just called a $14 million loan “small.”

9:14: A VAT is basically a sales tax. Mexican and American companies both pay it. As they pay state sales taxes on their final sales in the United States. 

There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, redux

The title of this post is a famous line in the Ford-Carter presidential debate in 1976.

President Ford was asked a question about the Helsinki agreement, which according to the moderator, recognized that “the Russians have dominance in Eastern Europe.” Now, outside the Baltics, the moderator’s claim was false! The agreement did not admit that Moscow had the right to govern the Warsaw Pact countries. In fact, the agreement did exactly the reverse, by disavowing both armed intervention and the use of economic sanctions as means of coercion. 

President Ford started to say, “I can’t under any circumstances believe ... that by signing the agreement ... 35 nations have turned over to the Warsaw Pact nations the domination of Eastern Europe. It just isn’t true!” And that would have been a fine answer to a loaded question. Unfortunately, he went on to add, “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration.” 

Man, that was a gaffe. President Ford knew exactly what he was talking about, he just said something stupid and then refused to walk it back. (If you watch the clip, you can see him beginning a good recovery, and then blowing it by saying that he did not think that the Poles considered themselves dominated by the Soviet Union.) 

Well, yesterday, Gary Johnson made a much more serious gaffe in an interview on MSNBC. The transcript:

Mike Barnicle asked Johnson: “What would you do if you were elected, about Aleppo?”

“About?” asked Johnson.

“Aleppo,” replied Barnicle.

“And what is Aleppo?” asked Johnson.

“You’re kidding,” responded Barnicle.

“No,” said Johnson.

Uh. That boggles the mind. Stunning. Ford made a gaffe, Johnson just admitted to total political malpractice and disqualifying ignorance. I stand in slack-jawed amazement ... and now I understand why Mitt Romney has refused to endorse. 

Anyone who wanted the Libertarians to become a real third party force in America should be very angry at Gary Johnson right now. As should anyone who believes that running for President of the United States is, you know, a serious thing. 

Coups, public opinion, and broadcasting

The best book on coups is Naunihal Singh’s Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups. It answers many of the questions I had earlier about the attempted coup in Turkey. Singh is at the Air War College in Montgomery, where I am visiting. The below picture is neither from Montgomery nor recent.

The book is excellent. And it answers two questions raised in my last post. First, seizing the means of communication is key. This is not because they are key in-and-of-themselves, but because controlling them is key to convincing all actors that the coup will succeed. The putschists in Turkey failed abysmally at doing that, even before Erdogan used his smartphone to make a videocall. 

Second, popular opinion does not matter. In Singh’s words: “Public opinion has no effect on coup outcomes. Once a coup attempt begins, military actors rarely consider the reaction of civilians to the coup, and their decision to support or oppose the coup attempt had nothing to do with which side had more popular support. Statistically, coups were no less likely to succeed in countries with governments that could be assumed to have reasonably high levels of support (countries with high economic growth, democracies or one-party regimes) than the opposite.”

Here is a good review. 

Bad journalism

 Last night I watched with horror as the Dallas massacre unfolded live on television. At first, the coverage was good. But then along came Brian Williams to take over as anchor. We were then treated to headlines proclaiming “Civil War” and a parade of commentators likening a sniper situation to Gulf War 2-like insurgent tactics. They wanted to make it seem like Dallas was at war.

I was disgusted.

Shame on the New York Post but more shame on Brian Williams and whoever the “expert” was he had on his show. What happened to the actual ex-cops providing actual wisdom who’d been on earlier? Too boring for Williams?

White Resentment TV, 24-7?

 From Vanity Fair: “According to several people briefed on the discussions, the presumptive Republican nominee is examining the opportunity presented by the ‘audience’ currently supporting him.”

So imagine a Trump television network and Internet multimedia operation in the wake of a Democratic victory in November. It would, of course, have to out-Fox Fox. It would be dedicated to telling the most dedicated supporters of the presumptive GOP nominee what they want to hear. 24-7 coverage of the themes Fat Crybaby is currently hitting on the stump.

How much damage could that do? The case for “none” is that there will be a backlash to Trumpist nativism after the election; moreover, Fox has already mined those veins for all that they are worth. (Viz its coverage of the New Black Panther Party.) 

The case for “a little” is similar, just assuming that the new venture could move the Overton Window a little bit and might push Fox to become even less hinged. 

The case for “a grave amount” is that it would provide a platform for extreme nativism and abet the creation of large-scale organizations openly dedicated to white identity politics. The Overton Window moves somewhere out to geosynchronous orbit. 

I have no idea.

Calling Amazon: a pitch for a zombie television series

 Division Street: America is a wartime thriller that takes place in an alternate 1971 where President Dick Nixon has been battling a zombie rising for over two years and now resides in the Western White House.

Main characters are Ben, an African-American National Guardsman, and Barbara, a Mary Tyler Moore type, alongside their respective families, all living in the Denver Safe Zone. Ben and his family are refugees from Pittsburgh, living initially in a tent city, and in suburban housing by the end of the first season. Barbara, the daughter of a ranching family in Greeley, CO, is drafted into Civil Defense.

Five projected seasons: The first focuses on clearing and holding Denver and the surrounding suburbs, reflecting Spielbergian fears from Poltergeist, Close Encounters, as well as Norman Lear comedies from the era. Like The Wire, The series expands organically to get a broader view of the response to the zombie threat, to include government/military response from the local, state, and federal level.

The fifth season focuses on Ben and Barbara’s participation in the campaign to retake America. In Army Group North, Ben ultimately becomes a company commander in the liberation of New York City. Barbara joins the Reconstruction and Reconciliation Corps, following her niece, a Marine NCO, in Army Group South, putting traitors, war profiteers, and others on trial, and reuniting communities with the federal government.

What makes Division Street: America compelling is its rich, complex characters whose arcs explore race, sex, and society in the face of the apocalypse. Pairs well with Man in the High Castle.

Emperor, clothes, zombies, lack of

 The Walking Dead and Fear The Walking Dead manage to be both stupid and not-entertaining. This week I tried to watch. I wound up fast-forwarding. Why are they popular? And I am speaking as a huge zombie-flick fan. Somebody help me understand.

Why the cartel wars do not cross into America, version 6,493

 Donald Trump has managed to resurrect the fear that Mexican cartels are just waiting, any second now, to extend their murderous rampage into the United States.

Except these guys can’t even carry out a simple hit in Texas without getting caught. And after two years of planning! John Gotti is grave-spinning. 

Sadly, the headline gets the attention; how American law enforcement wrapped it all up rather less. I do wish The Bridge had gone another season.

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, by a middle aged white dude from Brooklyn

 I laugh at the commentary hella more than I ever did with Jon Stewart. But his interview chops are terrible. 

A very short liveblogging of the Republican debate

 No, no fisking. No point in that! This is the Republican debate.

But it is weird to watch two very smart politicians, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, have this big long debate about bank bailouts without recognizing that there is in fact this thing called deposit insurance.

The reason that it is weird is that both could score points by mentioning it. Senator Cruz, after Neil Cavuto said that he would let small depositors go hang if he did not bail out the banks: “Mr. Cavuto, I would not bail out the bankers! But your premise is wrong, as you should know! Those depositors are protected by insurance and they would not be harmed.”

Or John Kasich, once Cruz screwed up: “Philosophy, shilosophy.” I paraphrase my favorite Republican. “Senator Cruz, why would you take away the deposit insurance that Americans have counted on to protect them from the government subsidized bankers? That would be crazy!” 

It is a little weird and more than a little surprising.

Everyone seems tired, not just Governor Bush. Were they all out late last night?

Technology and social capital

 There are a lot of questions about how modern technology is transforming society and social interactions. (For modern technology, read smartphones mediated by social media software.) What is remarkable, however, is how little we really know about how older technologies affected society and social interaction. 

For example, television. How much do we really know?

Well, courtesy of Elisabeth Perlman, comes some evidence from Indonesia. From the abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of television and radio on social capital in Indonesia. I use two sources of variation in signal reception — one based on Indonesia’s mountainous terrain, and a second based on the differential introduction of private television throughout Indonesia. I find that increased signal reception, which leads to more time watching television and listening to the radio, is associated with less participation in social organizations and with lower self-reported trust. Improved reception does not affect village governance, at least as measured by discussions in village meetings and by corruption in village road projects.

That does not seem good. Maybe my Luddism does not go a far enough.

Elisabeth, I should add, has a neat paper on the effect of free rural mail service on politics in the early 20th century. From its abstract:

The rollout of Rural Free Delivery (RFD) in the early twentieth century dramatically increased the frequency with which rural voters received information. This paper examines the effect of RFD on voters’ and Representatives’ behavior using a panel dataset and instrumental variables. Communities receiving more routes experienced higher voter turnout and spread their votes to more parties. RFD shifted positions taken by Representatives to ones in line with rural communities, including increasing support for pro-temperance and anti-immigration policies. Our results are stronger in counties with newspapers, supporting the hypothesis that information flows play a crucial role in the political process

It is fascinating stuff.

Victor Cha and Sue Mi Terry rip up Larry O’Donnell’s fearmongering on his own show

 So, Larry tried to lead his guests into admitting that North Korea could credibly shoot up a movie theater in the United States. Professor Victor Cha of Georgetown said “No”;  former CIA analyst Sue Mi Terry called it “ridiculous.” Larry pushed, Larry asked leading questions, both shot him down again and again. Larry went so far as to conflate an FBI warning to theater owners that they might get hacked with a warning that they might get physically attacked.

I am disgusted. It is time for O’Donnell to admit publicly that he overreacted and fear-mongered. And good for Ms. Terry! She was awesome. 

Pulling “The Interview” is bullshit

 I will add my own small voice to those decrying Sony’s decision to pull The Interview in the face of North Korean threats. The threats were bullshit. Had North Korea followed through, they would have been at war with the United States the next day. Better the bluff be called than we cave in to thuggery. 

For those of you who don’t know, Sony won’t even be releasing the movie electronically. They’re trying to bury it.

I want to call out the theater chains that folded up in the face of an anonymous threat.

I also want to call out Larry O’Donnell for abetting the forces of fear when he bullied the man on his show who had the temerity to point out that the threats were bullshit. I has kept it up; watch him try to defend himself at minute 5:35. His interviewees are deferential but refuse to engage with his fears that movie theaters might actually explode. 

The President of United States has said that people should go to movies.

You’re from Dorchester, Larry. You should be ashamed of yourself, but I bet you aren’t.

But in good news, the U.S. reopened relations with the Republic of Cuba!

Mosul just fell to the people we used to call the “enemy” and nobody cares

 ISIS forces just took Mosul. Mosul. Let me repeat that: Mosul. 

Worse yet, Iraqi forces fell apart in a way that reminds of Batista’s army during the tail end of the Cuban Revolution. This is bad news. Now, ISIS has been building an infrastructure in Mosul for quite some time. (The link alludes to a parallel tax system in the city.) But this is shocking. 

When you add to it evidence that ISIS is in the process of establishing a tax system in the areas under their control it gets very worrisome. 

And strangely, the TV news and the big-traffic interweb sites seem to find Eric Cantor’s loss more important. Which, of course, shows you how little we really cared about any of the things supposedly at stake in the Iraq war.

I would like to think that Americans will remain more vested in the Afghan war after the last U.S. soldiers leaves. But this is mostly because I was, you know, there. I might hope that should the Taliban retake Jalalabad we would pay a little more attention, but somehow I doubt it.

In defense of apathy, there really is no American option on the table in Iraq. Moreover, for all the parallels this isn’t Cuba in 1959 let alone Indochina in 1975; ISIS is not about to sweep into Baghdad. In a sense, then, why not ignore the news from Mesopotamia? It tastes of defeat and there is nothing to be done. 

But rational or not, that feels wrong. I am sad.

When did House of Cards jump the shark?

So I am only now getting around to watching it. It is better than I expected! And its shark-jumping appears to have been temporary.

But a shark was jumped at the end of episode 6. Spoilers after the fold.

SPOILER ALERT! DO NOT CLICK ...

The New York accent is dead, long live the New York accent

The traditional New York-New Jersey accent seems to be fading. (Do not be fooled; they are the same!) Then again, it seems to have been fading for a long time. Governor Al Smith was reknowned at the time for his accent; some even said it contributed to his loss in the 1928 presidential election.

Except, well, all the audio of him seems to show somebody with a barely-discernable accent. Compared to the parade of New Jersey accents appearing on MSNBC these days, Al Smith sounds like he is from Ohio. In the below clip I guess there is a little bit of an accent buried in there somewhere, but not really. He sounds like a deeper-pitched Matt Yglesias.

Smith did have an accent that emerged on occasion. The above clip is from 1933. In this 1928 clip, though, you can hear a very faint “ey” sound instead of “er.” That’s an iconic but archaic marker of NYNJ speech. The archaic accent, however, makes the modern content of the speech rather ironic: consider the studious avoidance of sexism at the end. (Also note the pretense at very high ethical standards. Do not be fooled into thinking that closing bridge lanes would not have sunk a candidate back in 1928.)

Back to the point: the markers of NYNJ speech do not depend on the now-defunct “ey” sound or the rarely-heard “youse.” I took the dialect quiz at the New York Times four times, and each time it pegged me as being from New York, Jersey City, or Yonkers. This despite giving honest answers about my use of “catty-corner” (a phrase I distinctly remember learning in California) and “you all” or “y’all” rather than “youse.”

The accuracy was slightly spooky, in fact. Is this just a New York phenomenon, or can such a short quiz really peg all Americans with such precision?

Leave Clint alone!

Seriously, people, it was funny. My wife is a Democrat, and she thought it was hilarious. So did the Obama campaign! And now the world has “Invisible Obama.” Leave Clint alone!

It was not super respectful, but it was not out of bounds. And believe you me, gentle readers, I am hypersensitive about that sort of thing. I get angry at the use of “this” instead of “the” to refer to the President. I was no fan of President George Bush the Younger, in fact I was the opposite of a fan, and I didn’t even like to call him “Bush” instead of “President Bush” or “George Bush” because that did not show the proper respect. You gotta respect the President, man, even if you wish he would leave office yesterday. I think Governor Jan Brewer owes the current President an apology, a grovelling apology, as does Bill O’Reilly. (You ... do ... not ... interrupt ... the President!) The Congressman who yelled during the State of the Union should be made to beg forgiveness. And oh Sweet Mary has President Obama had to put up with stuff that no person should have to put up with, let alone the President of the United States. I take this stuff serious, old pre-hipster Brooklyn serious. And my wife more so.

So when we say that Clint was fine, then Clint was fine. Leave the man alone!

Anyway, if you were wondering how it played in Farsi, go here.

Russia on a Miami flatscreen

 I am not sure what to make of watching Russia Today in a Miami hotel room as it questions global warming, makes fun of George Bush the Younger, and conducts an in-depth investigation into honor killings in Iraqi Kurdistan. Followed by someone with a British accent comparing NATO to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and calling for its dissolution and a story about Chinese knockoffs of Russian military hardware. “This plane is simply a Russian design stuffed with Chinese electronics! It’s a knock-off!”

Plus a story about a controversy over an Islamic charter school that the R.T. producers decided to call, and I am not kidding, “Intifada: NYC.” Gosh, my home town suffered an uprising and I only hear about it now?

The really surreal thing is the accents. A few of them are really quite good, practically native-born American; most have a faint faint barely-audible touch of Russian. Since the broadcast seems directed at a domestic audience (I would hope) that fact almost makes me feel Russian myself!  

Why does the dude dubbing the voice of the Ingushetian president have a clear Scottish accent? I like to imagine that’s what an Ingushetian accent sounds like to a Russian from Moscow. Sadly, I am probably wrong.

Jussi, have you seen this thing? Who is it aimed at?

Anyway, I’ll try to catch up on posting. I just went from L.A. to N.Y. to Tulsa to Burlington to Miami and I’m off to Atlanta tomorrow. (I also managed to briefly get to Northern Mexico. Worrisome.) I have lots of stuff to report ... although recent criticism from the honorable profesora has made me much more perfectionist.

Cool stuff

  Crazy busy these days.  Will try to post more, promise!

In the meantime, two things.  First, I watched the first episode of Flashforward on ABC yesterday.  Not bad!  Despite being a little overly “cinematic,” my wife liked it too.  To her surprise.  The best thing?  They had “Quiet Dog” by Mos Def playing when everyone blacked out.  Awesome.

Second, this is old, but kinda cool.  I think.  Libby Dole and Lebed as the presidents?  Huh.

Chillin’ like it was 1999

  More like 1989, actually.  Or even 1984.  I’m putting the final touches on two cases (one on Pemex, one on the Iraqi oil industry) with a little blue pen on paper printouts, drinking Busch Light from a can, and switching between MTV Hits (you know, which still plays videos) and the Pittsburgh-Chicago game.  Break was eating my wife’s wonderful noodles.  After a week where sleep really has been optional, this is the way to work. 

One way in which digital technology is inferior to the old is in channel switching.  Analog cable televisions would go bam! instantaneously from one channel to another, especially if you had one of those multiswitch remotes that plugged into the set.  These new ones take a few annoying seconds to make the change.  Strangely, I find myself disappointed to know that said new inconvenience will not be a permanent part of the future’s video experience. 

Anyway, I had to turn on the internet and ruin it all.  Thus, this post.  More on the Canadian oil industry forthwith, but I need to finish these two cases.  Sometimes deadlines are hard, even in academia. 

Whatcha y’all doin’ on this not-so-lazy Sunday, gentle readers?

Finns marry other Finns? Uh, I guess so.

  Hmm.  I am somewhat ashamed to live in a country where the below is not a firing offense at a major television news network.  No matter how dumb the show may be.  I mean, in a decent country shouldn’t displays like the one below cost you so many viewers that the network simply has to let you go?  For the bottom line, of course.  (Hat tip:  Salon.) 

Apparently not in America.  That said, my wife doesn’t think Brian Kilmeade is being serious.  “He looks like he’s African, Italian, Moroccan, totally mixed up,” she says.  “Clearly a joke.”

Uh, I hope so. 

Twins?

  My wife says that Rachel Maddow and Alison Stewart look like sisters.  Now that she's mentioned it, I think she's right. 

Observatorio Argentino 11: The new broadcasting law

  OK, I've been making a lot of fun of the idea that Argentina is run by a dictator and an enemy of the United States.  Obviously, neither is true.  

But a new law proposed by President Cristina Fernández raises some interesting issues.  She proposes to limit the the number of broadcast licenses that a single firm can hold, and allow telecoms companies to operate cable television networks.  The law would also reserve a third of broadcast frequencies for nonprofit groups such as universities, and set minimum quotas for Argentine films, music and programs.  (Her meeting with the movie-makers is pictured.)

I don't have any ideological problem with limits on the number of media outlets that any one person or entity can control ... but I might be wrong on that.  Are there dangers that I don't see?  This proposal seems pretty openly aimed at Grupo Clarín, which is a big critic of the president.  In addition, about a year ago she proposed to establish a government watchdog that would call out media bias, although nothing appears to have come of it. 

What do you think?

This goes out to James and Randy

  I am told that it can be difficult to get the Daily Show in Canada.  So, under the assumption that you might not regularly tune it in on the internets, I present to my Canadian friends the following very insightful group of talking heads:

 

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Provinces in Peril

Barack Obama Interview
John McCain Interview

Sarah Palin Video
Funny Election Video

 

 

Want to know more?  The preceeding story, “Provinces in Peril” is below the fold.

SNL gets its groove

  The only thing wrong with Rahm Emanuel is that he isn't from New York.  Dude should be from New York.

And here I see, for only the second time, a comedian actually get Barack Obama.

And finally, here is comedian Barack Obama on Rahm Emanuel:

Enjoy!

Observatorio Argentino 3: Best Facebook Group Evaaar

From HDTD’s agent in the Argentine comes the following Facebook group:  “Creo q el TREN BALA es un curro más grande que el MONORRIEL de Springfield!”

Translation:  “I believe that the Tren Bala is a bigger rip-off than the Springfield monorail!” 

Yes, that Springfield.  The Simpsons are, I think, a bigger cultural phenomenon in Argentina and Mexico than they are at home.  I have no idea what that means, but it has gotta mean something.  Right?

It really is an odd project for a country in as much trouble as Argentina.  Private groups estimate that CPI inflation has just hit 23%.  Farmers are on strike over export taxes again.  And strangest of all (since the currency is officially floating) Argentines are running out and trading in their pesos for dollars.  The situation got so bad last week that the banks had a mini-crisis when a volcanic explosion delayed flights carrying planeloads of Benjamins from Chile. 

It looks like average Argentines are looking at the inflation rate and figuring that the 3.2-to-one exchange rate can't last, even with the dollar's meltdown against the euro.  The central bank --- which hasn't really been independent since 2002 --- has burned through a billion dollars propping up the peso this month.  Now, that shouldn't be a big deal for a country with US$50 billion in reserves and skyrocketing export prices ... but a country with $50 billion in reserves and skyrocketing export prices should be facing the question of what to do about upward pressure on the currency, not figuring out how and when to devalue.  Which isn’t to say that a fall in the peso isn’t what Argentina needs, given spiralling inflation ... it is to say that it’s pretty sad for the country to be in this situation so soon after Kirchner’s debt repudiation gave it so much breathing space.

An Argentine editorial cartoon with a slightly different take below the fold.

The good old days really were better, except when they weren't ... or, something nice to say about Ronald Reagan

The paranoid style in American politics is always present, but it waxes and wanes.  We're currently in a waning period, but it certainly hasn't waned as much as it has in the past.

Here is a 1984 ad from the Reagan-Bush campaign.  It's about the Soviet threat, and aims to convince voters that the Reagan Administration has the correct approach.

To a modern viewer, this half-century old ad appears moderate, reasonable, and as intelligent as one would expect for a 30-second piece.  It bases its argument on prudence against a potential threat, and clearly states what the admakers believe an adequate insurance policy to be.  Contrast with this from the 2004 campaign:

A lie, an information-free bit of "contextual" information (six billion dollars!), an aversion, and a mention of an unspecified wolf-like program related activity that will presumably eat your children.  It's quite horrible, and it's quite horrifying that the Bush-Cheney campaign believed such ads would be effective.

How the Clinton ad stacks up, then, depends on your point of comparison.  As paranoid ads go, it's awful pandering compared to the artful 1984 ad that plays upon concrete fears with real prudence.  But compared to the 2004 slanderous cesspool of a piece, it's quite mild.  On the other hand, the Obama campaign's response manages to mock the whole paranoid trope while going to a whole new level of concrete in a 30-second spot.  Go below and see for yourself. 

Turnaround

I'm off to the Dominican Republic on Sunday.  Amma can't join me.  That makes me sad.

Mike asks what was controversial about the Clinton ad.  The satire tried to answer that question:  the ad first tries to scare you without telling you why you should be scared, and then insists that only one person can protect you without telling you how. 

It turns out that the Clinton campaign used stock footage in that ad, and the little girl whom Hillary is keeping safe in her bed is now a young adult.  She's also an Obama precinct captain.  And here she is:

Time to grow up

For those of you who don't know, here's the infamous 3am advertisement run by the Hillary campaign in Ohio.

Please scroll down to the previous post and ignore this one

Please use your effort on the previous post.  This one is merely to show that I am a fair man.  The Obama campaign is, in fact, quite capable of astounding lapses in taste, even if they don't occur quite as often as in the other major Democratic campaign.

Below the fold, however, is something genuinely funny, and actually germane to the below post that I'd like you all to scroll down to and make me feel better about.