Puerto Rico has its troubles, but I like the place.
Below is the text of H.R. 2499, which just made it out of the House. I am not strongly opposed, but I do not think it is a good idea.
SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
This Act may be cited as the ‘Puerto Rico Democracy Act of 2009’.
SEC. 2. FEDERALLY SANCTIONED PROCESS FOR PUERTO RICO’S SELF-DETERMINATION.
(a) First Plebiscite- The Government of Puerto Rico is authorized to conduct a plebiscite in Puerto Rico. The 2 options set forth on the ballot shall be preceded by the following statement: ‘Instructions: Mark one of the following 2 options:
(1) Puerto Rico should continue to have its present form of political status. If you agree, mark here XX.
(2) Puerto Rico should have a different political status. If you agree, mark here XX.
(b) Procedure if Majority in First Plebiscite Favors Option 1- If a majority of the ballots in the plebiscite are cast in favor of Option 1, the Government of Puerto Rico is authorized to conduct additional plebiscites under subsection (a) at intervals of every 8 years from the date that the results of the prior plebiscite are certified under section 3(d).
(c) Procedure if Majority in First Plebiscite Favors Option 2- If a majority of the ballots in a plebiscite conducted pursuant to subsection (a) or (b) are cast in favor of Option 2, the Government of Puerto Rico is authorized to conduct a plebiscite on the following 3 options:
(1) Independence: Puerto Rico should become fully independent from the United States. If you agree, mark here XX.
(2) Sovereignty in Association with the United States: Puerto Rico and the United States should form a political association between sovereign nations that will not be subject to the Territorial Clause of the United States Constitution. If you agree, mark here XX.
(3) Statehood: Puerto Rico should be admitted as a State of the Union. If you agree, mark here XX.
SEC. 3. APPLICABLE LAWS AND OTHER REQUIREMENTS.
(a) Applicable Laws- All Federal laws applicable to the election of the Resident Commissioner shall, as appropriate and consistent with this Act, also apply to any plebiscites held pursuant to this Act. Any reference in such Federal laws to elections shall be considered, as appropriate, to be a reference to the plebiscites, unless it would frustrate the purposes of this Act.
(b) Rules and Regulations- The Puerto Rico State Elections Commission shall issue all rules and regulations necessary to carry out the plebiscites under this Act.
(c) Eligibility To Vote- Each of the following shall be eligible to vote in any plebiscite held under this Act:
(1) All eligible voters under the electoral laws in effect in Puerto Rico at the time the plebiscite is held.
(2) All United States citizens born in Puerto Rico who comply, to the satisfaction of the Puerto Rico State Elections Commission, with all Commission requirements (other than the residency requirement) applicable to eligibility to vote in a general election in Puerto Rico. Persons eligible to vote under this subsection shall, upon timely request submitted to the Commission in compliance with any terms imposed by the Electoral Law of Puerto Rico, be entitled to receive an absentee ballot for the plebiscite.
(d) Certification of Plebiscite Results- The Puerto Rico State Elections Commission shall certify the results of any plebiscite held under this Act to the President of the United States and to the Members of the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States.
(e) English Ballots- The Puerto Rico State Elections Commission shall ensure that all ballots used for any plebiscite held under this Act include the full content of the ballot printed in English.
(f) Plebiscite Costs- All costs associated with any plebiscite held under this Act (including the printing, distribution, transportation, collection, and counting of all ballots) shall be paid for by the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.
The intention is blindingly obvious. Hope that independence voters will plump for option (2) in the first round, only to see themselves get slaughtered by the statehood proponents in the second. The rub? People vote tactically. Independentistas will vote for the status quo in round one, and all we will have had is another pointless election.
Besides which, the bill does not bind Congress to accept the referendum results. Translation: sovereignty-association might be accepted, were it not for the fact that any reasonable agreement would increase fiscal costs. The argument is worth repeating. The 14th Amendment makes it essentially impossible to strip Puerto Ricans of American citizenship against their will. That means that the Puerto Ricans currently collecting federal entitlements or individual benefits would continue to do so in an independent republic. The simple arithmetic is an increase in net federal costs of $600 million per year, as tax revenues from the island dried up. The more complex arithmetic might allow for savings of $2 billion in Medicare and $1.8 billion in food stamps and school lunches ... but based on the model of free association worked out in the Pacific, the federal government would probably continue to pay those benefits for some time in under sovereignty-association. In other words, a vote for sovereignty-association would be a vote for the status quo.
Statehood is even less likely to be accepted. First, it would also increase fiscal expenditures. Second, and more important, it would give the Democrats an advantage in the Senate and electoral college. That would not have been true 12 years ago, but Puerto Ricans voted against statehood in 1998. Of course, they voted for “none of the above,” which is kind of amusing ... but which should not be taken as a great grass-roots upwelling in favor of a nebulous sovereignty-association. Anyway, the island would be rather unlikely to vote for GOP candidates at the national level (although you never know) and so it seems equally unlikely that Congress would accept the results of the referendum.
In short, a bill that would accomplish nothing, and pick at one of the great unheralded victories in decolonization. France and Algeria shoulda been so lucky. Heck, if Congress hadn’t been so stone-cold racist, the Philippines and the United States coulda been so lucky.
There are a lot of federacies in the world. The U.S. is one. There is nothing wrong with this. Situation unbroke, no need to fix. Plus, making Puerto Rico a state would destroy my sinister plan to annex Iceland. Think it through, people!
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