Here is a description of the most-relevant people, organizations, and political parties.
People:
President Hosni Mubarak: Veteran Commander of the Air Force and Vice President to Anwar Sadat, he came to power in 1981. Since 1981, Mubarak has used “Emergency Laws” to attack opposition parties and groups. He’s famous across the Arab world as a “water buffalo” for his stolid stubbornness. To his detriment, he is notoriously slow in a crisis. For example, in both the Achille Lauro debacle and the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, he waited for weeks to make a choice. But once he makes a choice, his reputation is one of stubbornness. This characteristic has produced problems: the all-out war against the Islamists in the 1990s may have expelled radicals from the Brotherhood and from Egypt, but it also sent Islamic Jihad and others off to Afghanistan to become Al-Qaeda. He is married to Suzanne, and has two sons, Gamal and Alaa.
Gamal Mubarak: banker, corrupt, sleazy, it was widely expected that he would succeed to the presidency. He and Alaa are widely reported to be in London. If so, they are only joining much of Egypt’s wealthy, who are fleeing the unrest.
Vice President Omar Suleiman: Long-time éminence grise to Mubarak, he was in charge of Egypt’s general intelligence. He’s saved Mubarak’s life a number of times, and is quite loyal to him personally. His name has been circulated in prior months as a presidential candidate and probable stalking horse for Gamal’s candidacy. He’s responsible for the Egyptian end of the Bush Administration’s torture regime, and is widely reputed to enjoy his grim work. In a region known for torture, he’s refined it to an art — think Beria. On Friday the 28th, he became the first vice president Mubarak has ever appointed, and he is first in the line of succession should Mubarak be incapacitated, flee, or be otherwise removed from office. This move brought one of three possible coup-organizers into the government, though Suleiman retains private channels to the Minister of Defense and the Army.
Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik: Former Commander of the Air Force and Civil Aviation Minister, he replaced a technocratic-reformer named Nazif. Know as “the Iron Fist,” he’s bad business, but he’s also a respected war veteran. This move would appear to be a consolidation of support from the Air Force, given the Army’s uncertain loyalties.
Ayman Nour: Leader of the liberal secular El-Ghad Party, which is semi-legal. He founded El-Ghad in 2005 before being stripped of immunity and imprisoned for running against Hosni Mubarak. Spent 3 years in prison and released in February 2009. His son was arrested late Thursday. Ayman Nour was struck in the head late Friday. He has joined both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Association for Change in the National Unity Front. As of Monday night, he has called for a “people’s parliament” in order to write a new constitution. El Baradei is supportive.
Mohammed El Baradei: Former director of the IAEA and 2005 winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, he returned to Egypt in 2010 to announce his candidacy for the Presidency and launch the umbrella “Association for Change.” So far, he’s something of an empty suit in Egyptian politics, as he spent his life abroad. From Friday through late Saturday, he was the only opposition leader under house arrest. On Sunday, he reached an agreement with Ayman Nour and the Muslim Brotherhood to form a National Unity Front and begin negotiations with the Army — not the government.
Bureaucracies:
The Armed Forces: the regime has given the generals major economic concessions as a way to keep them from joining the protestors. Mubarak sent the General Staff to Washington for their annual review a few days earlier than usual; this appears to have been a mistake. The army has a fancy American kit, but it’s mostly made up of green conscripts. (Egypt drafts approximately a sixth of every male annual age cohort into the armed services; another chunk is drafted into the national police. The wealthy and educated easily avoid service.) To date, the Army has never attacked the Egyptian people. They receive $1.3 billion of foreign aid from the United States every year, they buy American kit, and their officers attend American war colleges. With 450,000 men under arms, they’re the tenth largest military in the world, and participate in annual war games with the U.S. and its allies called “Bright Star.”
The Ministry of the Interior and Police: These guys cover both political and regular crimes. The Ministry’s Bastille-like HQ is a target for the protestors. Attempts to break into their HQ Sunday were repelled, but several political prisons throughout Egypt are in the hands of the prisoners. Dismissing the Interior Minister is a long-standing Mubarak ritual to demonstrate that he can hear “the voices of the People.” The old incumbent Adly was hated, but replacing him with the equally repugnant “Master of the Prisons” is not going to win the regime any friends in the crowds.
The Association of Judges: the semi-independent judiciary branch also oversees elections. Mubarak has made them his enemy over the last decade by increasingly obvious ballot-stuffing and attempts to break their power.
Parties:
National Democratic Party: Ruling Party. They've been in power since 1981. Arab Nationalist with socialist tinge, but really corrupt. For a breakdown of its members and leadership, go here.
The Muslim Brotherhood: the second oldest party in Egypt. Originally nationalist and anti-colonial, they're the oldest native democratic institution in the country. The last decade has seen their base of support radically expand among the middle class, especially lawyers, engineers, and teachers. They're semi-banned by the government, but they have the deepest logistical network of anyone in the country in the opposition. The leadership has three factions: Conservative, Islamist, and Reformist. The former two are older. The Conservative faction won party by-elections in 2009, and while the Islamist faction retains ties to Hamas and other branches of the Muslim Brotherhood around the Middle East. The mostly middle class Reform faction is technocratic and social democratic. Many U.S. analysts think that the presence of the Islamist wing makes the Brotherhood tied to Al-Qaeda, and threats of an imminent Islamic Revolution — they’re wrong.
Wafd: Oldest political party in Egypt, originally agrarian-populist-nationalist, currently a foil and a puppet for the ruling NDP. Calls from Wafd Party leaders for immediate elections and change are a clear sign of the poor state of the NDP.
El Ghad: semi-legal liberal party led by Ayman Nour. Broke off from in 2005. It draws support from a rather thin bit of the middle class
Kefeya: a catch-all umbrella group that includes both Marxists and Islamicists. Popular from 2004-2006, it expected to launch a Color Revolution in Egypt with the help of the Bush Administration. Due to its political diversity, it’s retreated into a debating society and hasn’t been able to mobilize.
The Association for Change: Mohammed El Baradei's umbrella group. The weakest and newest political party.
The April 6th Youth Movement: Founded in 2008 and made up of college students, this group is modeled on Otpor in Serbia. They claim to have politicized over 100,000 young people and are quite brazen in their confrontations with the regime. They helped distribute the photos of Khaled Said, who was murdered by the police in Alexandria. International pressure forced the government to consent to a trial for police misconduct.
Recent Comments