Macri and motivated reasoning

Abad and Maurer here, with some thoughts on the next 50 days. 

President Macri has only one chance at re-election. That is to villify his opponent. The markets tanked when it looked like Fernández might win, he has to say. Fernández will turn us into Venezuela. Fernández is corrupt. And Fernández is a sock puppet for the other Fernández, Cristina, who plans to eventually turn the keys over to her idiot son. 

In other words, he has to go negative in a way that would make Donald Tr ... well, in a way that Donald Trump would be entirely comfortable with doing. 

Now, the polls show that Macri is underwater by a lot; it is that they show Fernández breaking the magic 45% you need to avoid a second round. One poll had it 55% to 33%. Another put it at 49% to 32%. You can see a whole bunch of similar results here from Clarín. Worse yet, most of the public blames Macri for the crisis. 

So villifying Fernández probably won’t work. But it might. There is private polling data (obtained by Leticia Abad) that indicates he could pull it out. And the election is 46 days away (as of September 11), which is a long time in politics. People engage in motivated reasoning all the time. Macri could easily convince himself that mudslinging will work, and even if it doesn’t, he has to try anyway to keep those evil Peronists out of the Casa Rosada.

The thing is, Macri has to avoid that temptation.

Argentina’s creditors won’t talk to Macri unless the next administration gives at least its tacit agreement. Moreover, Argentina would be well-served by having the lame duck president rip off the band-aid. That would not just make economic sense, it would make it much easier politically for Fernández to fight political pressures to make things worse. 

In other words, Macri should admit that he is a lame duck (at least in private) and get Fernández on board. Hell, in the long run it might even get him a good spot in the history books. 

All he needs to do is overcome basic human nature and hope his opponent can do the same.

More on that in our next post ...