Another Argentine election is upon us. Which means old friends from New Jersey asking me what I think! And so, after telling them, I go to a conference where other people reinforce my preconceived notions. And what better thing to do with your preconceived notions than write a blog post?
Okay, yes, I should tweet. But a blog post is more satisfying.
Currency markets reacted badly to the news that Governor Juan Schiaretti of Córdoba cruised to re-election with 54% of the vote. And it is true that the result bodes ill for President Macri’s re-election: Córdoba gave Macri his vote margin in the first round of the 2015 election (he won 53% in the province) and he went on to nail down 72% of the province’s vote in the second round.
The currency markets are worrying too much. The results bode ill for President Macri; they do not bode well for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, aka CFK.
Governor Schiaretti is a card-carrying moderate. Yes, he is a Peronist, but Peronism is a broad church that cuts across various parties: he ran on the platform of the moderate Alternativa Federal and the Alternativa’s leaders called to congratulate him after his win.
Moderate incumbents have won most recent provincial elections in Argentina:
- In Neuquén, home of the Vaca Muerta oil field, Governor Omar Gutiérrez easily won re-election. Gutiérrez stomped Macri’s candidate (who got only 17%), but he also stomped CFK’s proxy (25%). (Gutiérrez’s party, the People’s Movement, has ruled the province for 36 years; it ain’t radical.)
- Same result in Río Negro, where Arabela Carreras got 53%, crushing both the Macri-ally and the CFK-supporter. (Re-election provisions in the state constitution kicked the incumbent off the ballot.)
- In the San Juan open primary, Governor Sergio Uñac net 56% of the vote. Uñac is a Peronist, but a CFK-foe, who has mooted the possibility of running for President or Vice-President as a moderate.
- Governor Mariano Arcioni crushed the open primary in Chubut.
- In Entre Ríos, the Peronist incumbent steamrollered everyone. While not exactly a CFK enemy, however, Gustavo Bordet is not considered her ally either.
In other words, there are a lot of moderates in the country. A moderate coalition for President would pull in Peronists, disillusioned Macri voters, the Socialist party (powerful in Santa Fe province) and political refugees from the Radical Civic Union.
Keep your eye on June 22nd. That is the deadline to file for electoral coalitions. If a credible alternative emerges (maybe one behind Roberto Lavagna), then that will be good for the country. If multiple alternatives emerge, then that will be good for Macri, but will open the door to a CFK return.
Macri needs to gamble on a fragmented opposition and the scariest possible opponent. In that latter, his dilemma is a bit like Hillary Clinton’s. He can only win against a terrifying opponent ... but that terrifying opponent could win and that would be terrible for the country.
That said, I would be optimistic (as much as anyone can be, it is Argentina after all) that a moderate alternative will emerge. Again, keep your eye on June 22nd. Other key dates are the open primary on August 11th, followed by the main election on October 27th and (if necessary) the run-off on November 24th. Buckle up, but don’t despair.
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