Back in February, I noted that the Argentine president has too much power, which might be a cause of Argentina’s bad governance.
It turns out that I noted the same thing back in 2008. Cristina had just lost a Congressional vote on raising the soybean export tax from 35% to 44%. (Page 16.) I noted that this was a double-sign of political weakness, since her intention had been to bypass Congress altogether and impose the tax using the necessity and urgency clause in Article 99. Street protests forced her to go back to the legislature, where she lost 37-36 in the Senate.
I interpreted the loss as a sign of her political weakness. I was wrong about that. Despite the export tax mess, and the pension nationalization mess, she managed to win re-election in 2011. Her administration would not collapse under its own weight until the 2015 election. But she would careen from self-inflicted disaster to self-inflicted disaster without the guardrails that keep American presidents from doing likewise, no matter how incompetent or mercurial they may be. (Mostly. In domestic policy, at least.)
But I was right about the danger of Argentine presidential power. I still fear for Argentina, especially in the current economic headwinds.
In this specific case -- is that bad? The mini-crisis you have now is not one created by excessive power in the executive nor a crisis created by overriding institutions and the rule of law (like what was frequently the case). Rather this is a case drive by a mix of bad monetary policy, lax fiscal policy and the global environment. Which then requires tightening these policies (nothing you can do about the global environment). So is the strong executive power (I'm assuming Macri is willing to tighten policies) a good or bad in this case?
(Naturally in the long term it's very like still bad)
Posted by: FS | May 13, 2018 at 01:49 PM
In the specific case, I am not sure that the Macri administration needs or intends to exercise any powers not enjoyed by the other American presidents. Unless he is planning another corralón, the President and the head of the central bank have all the necessary powers.
I think; am I overlooking something?
Posted by: Noel Maurer | May 14, 2018 at 12:22 PM
Good post but according to my knowledge after 12 years the election of Mauricio Macri as Argentina's president is Kirchner clan in power blew new wind into the sails of South America's second-largest economy.
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Posted by: CapitalHeight | June 15, 2018 at 06:10 AM