Puerto Rico is not following the Tennessee Plan, but it may work regardless

In 1790, North Carolina ceded its western territories to the federal government in payment for the federal assumption of its revolutionary debts. In March 1796, the Southwest Territory unilaterally declared that it was now a state. The legislature elected two senators and organized a popular vote for two representatives. The delegation showed up in Washington and demanded to be seated. After a few months of confusion, Congress passed a joint resolution admitting the Southwest Territory as the State of Tennessee. Congress seated the two senators, who had been constitutionally selected by the legislature, but insisted on a new election for the House of Representatives. 

That was before the 17th Amendment, however. But in 1959, the Alaska Territory tried the same thing. The state organized elections for two senators and a representative, who went to Washington and asked to take their seats. Congress agreed to seat the representatives in 1959, as part of a deal that also admitted (then Republican) Hawaii. 

But such a plan is not a sure shot at success. Did you know that  the District of Columbia has been electing shadow senators since 1990? I discovered this fact on March 13, 2016.

I was stuck at a red light on an exit ramp from Rock Creek Parkway onto Massachusetts Avenue, when I saw that the Chrysler 300M ahead of me had the strangest license plates. They were D.C. plates, but instead of a number there were the words “US SENATOR” in an unusually small font. 

So I took a photo.

To my surprise, the Chrysler dropped behind me and started to tail my car. This went on for about two miles. Annoyed, I pulled onto a side street, stopped the car, and walked over to car now tailing me. I knocked on his window. “You’re following me.” It wasn’t a question. 

The driver, a bearded white man, responded with no hostility in his voice. (That will be hard to believe when you read the words, but it is true.) “You took a picture. Was there something you didn’t like about the car?” 

My voice likely showed some irritation. “I’ve never seen a license plate like that. I took a picture. Are you a Senator I don’t recognize?”

He didn’t answer my question. Instead he said, “I’m sorry, there’ve been incidents.”

“What incidents?” I responded. “What senator do you work for?” But he drove off. 

And that was how I discovered that he was Paul Strauss, one of D.C.’s shadow senators, elected by the people of the District to lobby Congress for statehood. So far, Strauss and his colleague, Mike Brown, have accomplished precisely nothing.

Puerto Rico is now trying what it claims to be the same strategy. Appoint shadow senators and representatives and lobby Congress to have them seated. But:

1. Problem #1 with the plan is that the would-be congresspeople haven’t been elected. So poof, none of the legitimacy that the representatives from Tennessee (and later Alaska) brought to the table. 
2. Problem #2 is that Puerto Rico will be highly Democratic. Despite impressions, that was not true as of September 20, 2016 2017. But now, after the Trump administration decided that it did not care about the island, whatever conservative leanings the electorate might have had have been destroyed. Republican strategists know this. But the Puerto Rican delegation has no plan (a la the paired admission of Alaska and Hawaii) to counterbalance.
3. And problem #3 is that D.C. has been trying the serious version of the strategy for 27 years, to no avail. 

Which means that I should be here saying that this strategy has a snowball’s chance in Hell of succeeding. But I actually think the reverse. In fact, I would bet on statehood happening very fast the next time that Democrats win both houses of Congress and the presidency.

Once upon a time admitting two states (D.C. and P.R.) on a party-line vote would have been seen as a sort of unconscionable gerrymandering. But that time is passing. The norms of American political life have been going out the window for some time, maybe since Robert Bork, certainly since Texas decided to carry out its intercensal redistricting in 2003. (The redistricting violated political norms, but despite all the liberal outrage, it actually made Texas politics fairer and more democratic. Really.)

I do not see the political penalty for the Democrats from shoving through statehood for both jurisdictions at the next chance they get. Plus side: four extra senators. Minus side: some loss of control over the District on the part of Democratic representatives from Maryland.

Which leaves only one reason not to admit either or both the District and Puerto Rico: fear of a voter backlash at the following election.

Is that likely? 

Comments

[J.H.]

So in a weird sorta way, Trump will ultimately be responsible for the states of DC and PR because helped polarize the system so much that the Democrats will realize they have nothing to lose by admitting them along strict party lines?

Maybe Trump is a secret Democrat plant tasked with ensuring Democratic control for the next 30 years.....

[Matthew McIrvin]

I'm not fully convinced Democrats won't go right back to following the old unwritten norms of US politics once they get back in power. But they have been playing much harder hardball than I expected in the Trump era, so maybe it'll happen.

[Dave K]

If norms are out the window why stop at PR and DC?
You could potentially still lose federal elections even with two additional blue states.
Bringing in Indian reservations as their own states would be useful tactic after DC and Puerto Rico to further control the Electoral College and Congress. If you had cooperation from a few blue states you could admit enough small enclave microstates into the Union to impeach and remove any elected Republican President and Vice President from office on a party-line vote.

[Noel Maurer]

I suspect, Dave, that you know the answer to this! I'm having some trouble understanding the point. Which is certainly because I'm tired, but would you mind explaining why you asked what seems to be an obvious question?

[Dave K]

If norms are gone why restrain partisan power plays to the reasonable?

Trump would have still won the 2016 election with PR in the electoral college. If we're going to violate norms then we need to go far enough that they don't get a future chance to retaliate.

[Noel Maurer]

You’re assuming away all the other barriers to states other than Puerto Rico and D.C. Those barriers are immense.

[Dave K]

I agree the barriers are immense but the partisan benefits seem (from my perspective) to be more long lasting and unequivocal with a larger power grab.

The partisan benefit of bringing in PR and DC is primarily 4 new Democratic Senators.

The House of Representatives is a marginal improvement (7 new Democratic Representatives for DC and PR but about half of those are probably reapportioned from existing Democratic districts). In terms of the Electoral College the effect is minute (about 4-6 more Democratic EVs on net after reapportionment).

DC status as a neutral and default place for federal employment might suffer if it was a state rather than a disenfranchised district. I could see Congresses (under both parties) shift more federal employment away from a State of Columbia.

There's the question of whether the people of Puerto Rico actually want statehood (the last couple of referendums are of questionable democratic validity). It's unclear if the tax implications (income, corporate, gas, bonds, etc) of statehood would be worth the federal benefits for the island.

I'm not sure the case for DC and PR statehood is unequivocal from a partisan point of view or from a local DC or PR perspective.

[E. Harding]

"Despite impressions, that was not true as of September 20, 2016."

Actually, it was very true. Check the presidential primary vote. And didn't you mean 2017?

[Noel Maurer]

Yes, I did mean 2017! Thank you.

Republicans regularly win gubernatorial, legislative and local elections on the island.

[J.H.]

Noel,

Hope everything is well with you.

Would love to read your thoughts on Puero Rico following the events there recently with Rosello getting in trouble politically (even with his own party apparently) and resigning but managing to push in his preferred successor now mired in controversy as he wasn't confirmed into the position as Sec of State by both the House and Senate in San Juan.....