Thoughts on Turkey

 Turkey is in the middle of an old-fashioned military coup, in the same league as the 2014 one in Thailand. This is not at all like recent events in our hemisphere. Honduras in 2009 was a complex and confusing situation where the constitution failed to contain political disputes. Paraguay in 2012 was only a coup in the fever dreams of the Brazilian government; the impeachment likely violated the spirit of the constitution, but it adhered to the letter. A coup may happen in Venezuela, but it will be a result of a complete collapse of order. We do not do things this way in this hemisphere.

With the kids in bed (they are tired!) I am watching television. I think there is an interesting question about whether Erdogan’s ability to get out messages via the Internet has made a difference as to how the coup has unfolded. There is a research project there ... coup leaders always moved to seize the television and radio stations back in the day, but do we know whether such seizures mattered? Is there data?

There is another interesting question about conscript militaries. It is clear that conscript militaries can pull of coups; it has happened all the time. But do we know whether conscript militaries decrease or increase the likelihood of a successful coup given other factors, like education or the legitimacy of democracy (the latter being hard to measure).

Worth studying.

Oh, and Turkey is not the only Muslim-majority nation in NATO. (Sorry Rachel!) I spent a lot of time in the other and blogged far less about it than I should have. Ni modo, I was tired at that time in my life.

Comments

[Matt McIrvin]

Starting to see claims from far-lefties in Turkey that "the best-informed people" all agree the coup was a fake. (The guy starting this discussion was also a 9/11 truther.)

[Dave K]

Whether this was an actual coup attempt or a fake one, Erdogan was already prepared use the excuse to consolidate power and erode democratic limits (his purge of the judiciary seems like a prelude to worse).