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April 30, 2016

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There's been a lot of chatter lately about the economy slowing down and going into an "earnings recession", often with the implication that this is good for Trump. I can't decide how much of the 2016 recession talk is motivated reasoning, though.

An earnings recession is unlikely to harm Clinton's prospects. A broad recession would harm her but there's no evidence for a recession in the next 4 months. In some respects the economy doesn't have so far to fall at this point in the economic cycle to cause a recession.

I'd be more concerned about 2018 being a bloodbath if a recession hits in late 2017.

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