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November 24, 2015


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(1) You have Alaska blue?

(2) How are you painting Michigan red? MI went for Obama by nine and a half points. True, that was a lot less than his 2008 win (16 points!) -- but it's still a long way from there to a GOP victory. A 3% increase in the white voter turnout isn't going to do it.

Doug M.

Actually, only one half of Michigan is red ;)

If you give Alaska to Trump and Virginia too (since its hard to see Pennsylvania going for Trump and Virginia not coming along too) but give Michigan to Clinton, then we get an even more interesting scenario than a Trump win - an electoral tie with both Trump and Clinton on 269 electoral votes. This will likely then lead to a win for Trump since in the event of a tie it is the House of Representatives (voting by state) which then elects the President and in the House the Republicans have majorities (of seats in the House) for 33 states while the Democrats have majorities for only 14 states (the others 3 states have basically equal representation between Democrats and Republicans in the House). Trump's VP candidate would likely also get selected by the Senate 54-46 based on the rules of the Twelfth Amendment.

I'm assuming here that it is the current Congress that would vote for the President and Vice President and not any new Representatives and Senators elected in 2016 since the current term of the Congress ends in January 2017 and according to the twelfth amendment the House has up until March 2017 to choose after which the Vice President becomes Acting President.

Overall that makes this an even more risky path and one that even some insane campaign strategists would likely not take. But it is also definitely a path - aim for a tie in order to win in Congress.

Alaska is a misprint. Will fix.

Michigan more in a bit.

Doug, map corrected above! See the next post about Michigan. Comments, of course, welcome. I am an amateur psephologist.

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