Can a Republican take Michigan in 2016?

 No.

At least no orthodox Republican. Not Jeb, not Marco, not Ted, not even the Kasich.

But here is what could give the GOP hope. From prowling around through exit poll data (from Fox News) and the overall turnout numbers, it is possible to back out how many people voted in each racial group in the 2008 and 2012 elections. Short version: white turnout plunged from 68% in 2008 to 61% in 2012. Get those voters back and get a bit over 59% of them to vote Republican and the GOP can take the state ... even if the Republican candidate loses a third of the Latino vote share relative to Romney, even if blacks vote in the same numbers as in 2008, and even with the projected decline in the white share of eligible voters from 80% to 79%.*

That is the basis for the numbers in the previous post. (In a typo, the post as written only gave the numbers for Pennsylvania.)

So far, so good for the GOP. It makes the state look within Donald Trump’s grasp. Who knows? Maybe his nativist protectionist populism could energize disillusioned white Michiganders and swing the state.

But here is the rub. Back in 2008, when all those white people in Michigan went to the polls, Barack Obama won 51% of their votes. In 2012, when many of them stayed home, Barack Obama won only 44% of their votes. There is no reason to think that the disillusioned white voters of Michigan lean Republican. 

That is not, of course, what Sean Trende thinks. He guessed that the missing white people might have gone 70-30 to the GOP. But unless the Fox exit polls are wildly off (and they might be) I do not see where he gets that guess from, other than that most of the disillusioned voters live in rural and exurban areas.

So while I stand by my numbers (with apologies for reporting only the PA results) ... I also admit that it is wildly unlikely that any Republican could get Michigan. Upping white turnout while upping the white GOP vote share looks close to Mission Impossible.

Considering the above evidence, if anyone is going to get the missing white voters to go back to the polls and vote for them, then they had better have some wildly heterodox thing to offer them. And the Donald, well, he is nothing if not heterodox. More so in the general, when he no longer has to worry (inasmuch as he bothers to now) about Republican orthodoxy. 

No, I do not believe it could work. Certainly not when executed by Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. But it is a possible path to victory, no?

Back to you, Doug.

NOTE: In fact, it is even harder for the GOP: if you believe the exit polls, African-American turnout in Michigan went from high in 2008 to astronomical in 2012. It is possible that 2012 was an outlier, but that is not how I would bet. Especially not with Donald Trump on the GOP line.

Comments

[Doug M.]

Turnout nationwide dropped dramatically in 2012, from 62.3 in the 2008 cycle to a much lower 57.5. So Michigan's turnout crash, while dramatic, was not so unusual. If you make the reasonable assumption that 2008 turnout in Michigan picked up a couple of percentage points due to the auto industry bailout, then the subsequent adjustment is pretty much exactly what you'd expect.

Michigan is one of those odd states -- Wisconsin is another -- where large numbers of white voters consistently ticket-split, voting for a Democrat for President while swinging pretty hard Republican at the state level.

But anyway. As you correctly note, to win Michigan, a GOP candidate needs to both dramatically increase white turnout *and* get those white voters to vote strongly GOP. That second part actually seems harder in Michigan than in most purple or blue states. It gets even worse when you consider that Romney probably picked up a point or two in '12 from being a native son.

Never say impossible -- a lot could happen between now and next November. But it seems very, very unlikely. And when you say Trump is unorthodox, okay, but is he unorthodox in ways that would particularly appeal to Michiganders? Brief googling suggests that top issues include infrastructure and education -- not surprising in a rust belt midwestern state, but neither particular strengths for Trump.

I note in passing that about 2% of Michigan's white electorate consists of Muslims; the state has the second largest community in the US.

Doug M.