Tonight, Victor Menaldo sleeps happy in Seattle. Not because he cares who won the Canadian election. Victor is from Queens and lives in Washington State; he is not entirely clear that Canada is a country. No, Victor sleeps happy because Canadian voters, in their infinite wisdom, upheld Duverger’s law, which is, in the words of Prof. Menaldo, the “one insightful rule” that political science has given to the world.
To recap, Duverger’s law states that democracies that vote by geographical district where the biggest vote-getter wins will have two-party systems. The reason is that voters won’t want to waste their votes on no-hopers, so third parties will struggle. If, for example, voters really hate one particular party, then they will vote for whatever second party looks most likely to defeat the hated one. They won’t want to risk having the evil ones win by wasting their vote on a no-hoper party, even if that party most closely fits their preferences.
And that is what seems to have happened in Canada! Defying the polls, left-leaning Canadians did not split their votes between the Liberals and the New Democrats. Rather, they broke Liberal at the last minute, handing an outright majority to that party.
So now my friend Victor can sleep easy, knowing the Duverger has regained ground in England and seems to have proven itself in Canada. As a political scientist, his job is secure.
At least until some damn bloody voters somewhere else decide once again to ignore the law. Man, political science would be easy if it weren’t for all those, you know, voters!
Gloating about Duverger the week before Argentina's first round....
Posted by: boz | October 20, 2015 at 07:21 AM
Argentina elects the lower house by proportional representation, no? And the Senate has that Mexican-style system where the winner in the state gets two seats with the runner-up picking up the third. You wouldn't expect a two-party system to emerge in that setting, would you?
Although sometimes it seems as though Argentina has more of a no-party system than a multi-party system. It can make my head hurt.
What I don't know is how much strategic voting goes on in the first round of the presidential election. What do you think? And who is going to win?
Posted by: Noel Maurer | October 20, 2015 at 12:12 PM
44 seats and a shade under 20% of the popular vote went to the NDP.
It is clear that Duverger's Law was watered down severely in the process of passing it in Canada.
Posted by: birdboy2000 | October 20, 2015 at 08:46 PM
And Americans constantly bellyache that we have a two-party system because people are stupid and cowardly and lack faith. Usually they imagine that their favorite third party (which is either left-wing, Libertarian or some elite centrist thing) would be fantastically popular if people voted their actual preferences.
Posted by: Matt McIrvin | October 27, 2015 at 09:37 PM