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July 28, 2015


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No real disagreement with the Sanders map. It's a floor, and arguable that Sanders could do well to hold together the 2004 map.

OTOH, it's possible that if Sanders is struggling to win a Kerry + Ohio type map, he's giving up early in states like Florida and it allows the GOP to focus more and more resources on Pennsylvania, Minnesota, etc.

For the Trump map, yeah, the swing isn't uniform like that, you could have Hillary picking up significant white support across the country but the needle won't move much in Mississippi. I think Obama 2008 + the Dakotas and Montana + maybe Missouri may be the Clinton vs. Trump map.

Wouldn't Arizona, Arkansas and Georgia be winnable for the Democrats in a Clinton v. Trump election?

I think there's too much racial polarization. The whites in those states aren't really swing-voters to the same extent that your whites in the West and Northeast are. Maybe I'm being too skeptical. They'd probably be contested for at the very least.

Trump's loss counts as a moral victory, because he won all the Real America states.

Arizona and Georgia would reaches in the Trump scenario, but North Carolina is an easy swing.

Trump's optimum VP pick is probably Stan McChrystal.

Has McChrystal shown any interest in running, let alone as a Republican aligned with Donald Trump's brand of conservative politics? He has always struck me as a rather liberal Democrat.

None that I'm aware of.

He's probably a fairly conservative Democrat, but there's really no way to know. But the McChrystal thing was more a parallel to Stockdale than anything all that specific.

Trump's historically been liberalish (pro-choice, etc), until the current attention-seeking incarnation. The problem is that helpful VP Candidates will see this as suicide pact that it is, and bail.

But leaving it to people in the Carson/etc continuum, Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska is a more conventional pick. Rex Lee of Utah. But whoever does this would be cutting off their nose to spite their face, so it'd have to be a high fringe figure, a retiree, or someone in private business with functionally unsavory views who'd be able to fall in line behind Trump. The CEO of Papa John's is available.

Your analysis makes me think that Carson is a good bet, much more than the guy from the last cycle. No?

It's sort of hard to answer the question, since people with conventional VP credentials won't get on the ticket in the weird event that Trump wins.

Neither Sasse nor Lee is exactly from the last cycle, more conventional credentials, while being fringey.

Sasse is dominionist with home schooling tendencies as well as being a former Bush Administration Official.

Lee is the son one of Reagan's Solicitors General, and Ted Cruz's sidekick.

The really good choice, though, is probably Tim Scott.

People didn't hate Kerry and Gore because they were too liberal, people hated Kerry and Gore because they were John Kerry and Al Gore. They're inauthentic, Hillary Clinton has the same problem. Bernie Sanders base is way larger than this against Rubio-Kasich because it's the economy stupid, but unlike Bill he wants to reinstate Glass-Steagall, raise taxes on the ultra rich, and repair our infrastructure employing about 13 million people. Also, ha another Trump doubter, though it was more standard around this time, I hope you got the hint after he won the south

Wow literally all of this was so wrong.

It was a thought experiment, showing that the country is now so geographically polarized that even Johnson/Reagan/Nixon margins wouldn't win 49 states.

In addition, while the 22-point uniform Republican swing depicted in the first map appeared marginally possible, the 19-point uniform Democratic swing depicted in the second map did not. Even in 2015 (let alone 2019), it did not seem possible for any Democrat running against any Republican to win 38 states.

I am sorry that you missed the point.

This aged worse than Michael Jackson's skin...

See my above reply to Colby.

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