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July 30, 2015

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So, what's the reaction over on Fox if he wins? Mass hysteria? Wasp-killer laced Flavouraid? Mass emigration to Alberta?

Shareholders celebrate! Four years of an actual socialist in the Oval Office? Ratings would go through the roof! Happy happy days!

Or so I imagine.

People up here stopped freaking out about the NDP taking over Alberta pretty fast but I guess the cultures are a bit different.

New Mexico doesn't stay Blue in a scenario of Bernie replicating Obama's performance among non-white voters? Huh.

That's my fault, Logan! You're right, New Mexico should be blue.

Obama's margin was 9.9% in 2012. That put it right under the cut-off for states that the Democrats would lose under a 10-point swing. So it didn't belong in the initial map. I didn't recalculate numbers for New Mexico because unlike the other swing states, there were no exit poll data.

But that's an oversight, since there is no way that a seven-point swing among white voter only could cause Sanders to lose the state.

Thank you!

James: I suspect that the general wonder at the election of a self-proclaimed socialist would last about as long in America as it did in Alberta. But among Fox News producers and the viewers they court? That's a different story! Their outrage could get amped up all over again.

AFAIK, all you guys have is the National Post. Weak tea compared to our right-wing noise machine! Hooah! U-S-A!

cosign on the marked Black antipathy to Walker, such that it's remarkable.

James: coincidentally, one of the energy writers at Vox went outside his normal field and wrote what seems to be a pretty good piece about the right-wing media in the United States.http://www.vox.com/2015/7/30/9074761/conservative-media-republican-party

I wonder why there's no equivalent in Canada? As I jokingly mentioned, the National Post is really nothing by comparison.

Shah8: It really is remarkable, isn't it? In part, it's about policy. But it's also about the way he relishes the policy. Consider the announcement speech at the below link. Go to minute 13:55. Listen to what he has to say. Then watch what happens at minute 14:03.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?327000-1/governor-scott-walker-rwi-presidential-campaign-announcement

Yes. He really did that.

Logan: I have an out about New Mexico: the ticket is Walker-Martinez!

The truth is that red New Mexico is an oversight, but thinking about it, Martinez or Sandoval are obvious Veep picks for almost any GOP candidate. Or is that logic mistaken?

Noel: Not sure Martinez could carry New Mexico in a Presidential year, but who knows.

Anyway, on paper they're good generic VP picks, but neither may clear basic vetting or end up getting asked, and in at least one case, could easily pass on it if offered. And neither of them may end up making sense for Walker.

Martinez has declined in the past, citing her sister's long-term health care needs. That's good cover, but it may also be that she knows she wouldn't clear vet (small state, medium number of scandals and budget issues would suggest that she's--and her team--aren't ready for prime time.)

Sandoval makes sense on paper, but I think he'd pass for two reasons. First and foremost, I think he's better off running for President in his own right as the savior of the GOP, and could do that in attempting to unseat Hillary's second term than risking following Walker. Second, he's close to the line on veto points for: taxes, being pro-choice curious, and mildly gay friendly. So, while he'd come back clean from vetting, he may not want the offer.

Finally, it's been a while since a sitting governor picked another sitting governor at all.

Focusing on the post-reform nominating system, governors tend to pick Senators (sometimes, Congressmen), to cover their flank.

Walker's optimum pick is probably someone like Kelly Ayotte. She's the third amigo of the Graham-McCain gang, she's seen as a GOP moderate, and she gives foreign policy cred to the ticket. The "fuck it, we're gonna win this thing" is probably Deb Fisher or Tim Scott.

I've actually met Sandoval. I agree with McDevite's analysis and I'm a Democrat. This guy is just biding his time until 2020. He could absolutely win the Presidency. He has a great story, no scandals, and a lot of governing wins.

These are two extremely informative comments. Thank you!

Sandoval looks like someone to watch very carefully. His state has basically turned blue, as far as I can tell; I'm not sure that it's really swingy anymore. If that's right, it makes the man doubly important to watch.

Hmm. Is Nevada still purple in presidential elections?

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