Well, the Labour Party will not save you. (In a weasel defense, let me state that the prediction at the link was that Labour will win if Scotland walks. But see below: we did think that Labour would win anyway, and we was wrong.)
Still, I am not worried. First, the polls augur well. The blue dots show support for the E.U. The green dots show support when asked, “Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain’s interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms. How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?”
As long as David Cameron can finagle something out of his European partners, these numbers make it seem like it would be an easy sell to the British public. As long as “something” does not involve a treaty change, I suspect that the rest of Europe would be quite willing to go along. Unless he humiliates himself, he should be able to get a pro-E.U. majority without breaking a sweat.
Now, should we trust the polls? After all, they got the recent general election fairly wrong. But I would make three points. First, constituency polling is much harder than national polling. That said, there is evidence that the polls actually blew the national vote share, so that might not be as much consolation as you would hope.
Second, the reason the national vote shares were off appears to have the last-minute collapse in Liberal Democratic support. That is tactical voter behavior consistent with the model that Victor Menaldo explained in comments: try to create momentum for your party by telling pollsters how you want to vote, but then bail out for whichever leading alternative you dislike less when election day rolls around. In a two-option referendum, tactical voting is not an issue. The polls should be more accurate as a result.
Finally, the general election trend was against the Liberal Democrats and in favor of the Conservatives. (Click on the vote forecasts tab.) If the numbers turn around in the next few years, then we will revise our forecast, of course.
But what could destroy the pro-E.U. momentum? It is hard to see anything. UKIP would have to make some pretty damned convincing arguments to sway these margins. Or Cameron would have to royally botch things up in Brussels and Berlin. Even a recession would not do it; people are less likely to take risks in bad times.
In short, much ado about nothing.
Unless the above is wrong. What could make Brexit a contender?
UKIP isn't interested in rational policy decisions. It's using the EU (and immigration) as scapegoats for all the ills of the modern world. It's trying to tap into public insecurity and disgust with politics as usual.
There are gigantic differences between UKIP and the SNP, but they both rage against the "Westminster establishment", and offer "independence" as the universal solution to all sorts of problems.
The SNP are a vastly more competent, rational, and plausible outfit than UKIP. They didn't convince a majority to back Scottish independence in last year's referendum. On the other hand, they came closer than anyone expected. The polls narrowed drastically in the final weeks of the campaign. What had been a steady lead of 20+ points for No (to independence) shrank to only 10 points on polling day.
I still think (and as a UK resident, devoutly hope) there will be a No vote to Brexit. But I also think it may be a lot closer than the polls currently indicate.
Posted by: Iainrobertsblog | May 15, 2015 at 08:15 AM
Wouldn't a Grexit gone badly provide momentum against EU membership?
Posted by: shah8 | May 15, 2015 at 07:53 PM
Well we now have a deal and a date (June 23rd) for the referendum.
And the deal does require eventual treaty change in order to exempt the UK from the "ever closer union" provision and for some other envisioned amendments.
What do you make of the chances of a Leave vote now Noel? I think some polls had the Leave option in the lead recently.
Posted by: J.H. | February 20, 2016 at 09:58 AM
In general, I'm still sanguine.
Historically, referenda tend to break for the status quo. Consider:
http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_5268.pdf
and
http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/readingpolitics/2014/01/15/scotlands-independence-referendum-do-we-already-know-the-result/
The best tracker that I know of is here:
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/
Considering that the Conservatives are divided on the matter, I'd still predict that the U.K. will stay in.
Posted by: Noel Maurer | February 20, 2016 at 10:57 AM
This prediction is looking shaky, but it ain't over till it's over.
Posted by: Noel Maurer | June 18, 2016 at 01:14 PM
Looks like Leave has won. That certainly is going to shift things.
Posted by: Dave K | June 24, 2016 at 12:06 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLQJVKP3YlM
Posted by: Will Baird | June 24, 2016 at 02:02 AM
So what now?
Posted by: J.H. | June 24, 2016 at 02:04 AM
Well, apparently it means Trump is gonna win by sympathetic magic, judging from the randos-on-the-Internet analysis. I can only assume the mainstream media in their wisdom will be playing up the same angle.
Posted by: Matt McIrvin | June 24, 2016 at 07:51 AM
The Brexit vote crossed ideological borders in a way Trump is not well-positioned to do. It may point to where the Republican Party is headed after the election (emphasis on economic nationalism and populism over conservatism).
Posted by: Dave K | June 24, 2016 at 11:03 AM
So in Dr. Maurer's ATL, Rubio is the GOP nominee and the Brits voted to stay in the EU. Diverging further and further from our reality...
Posted by: JKR | June 25, 2016 at 03:08 PM
Hahahaha!
And in that world, this Copa America game is the final, not the third place game.
Posted by: Noel Maurer | June 25, 2016 at 09:32 PM
Haha!
What a divergence though.
And now we seem to have messy uncertainty in the UK. It seems that the ones with any sense of planning and preparedness are the SNP and EU officials/other European leaders. The Brexit brigade have been busy reneging on claims and promises while the government seems to be adrift after Cameron's resignation speech.
Very messy. Cameron should have resigned immediately and called for a special Conservative Party conference to elect a new Tory leader before the end of June. New PM would then invoke Article 50 and begin negotiations.
With some leave voters regretting their choice and Cameron having caked for a referendum on his own initiative (not in response to a popular petition for it) I think the appropriate term for these events is "Brexident"...or maybe just "oops!"
Posted by: J.H. | June 26, 2016 at 08:09 AM