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May 14, 2015


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UKIP isn't interested in rational policy decisions. It's using the EU (and immigration) as scapegoats for all the ills of the modern world. It's trying to tap into public insecurity and disgust with politics as usual.

There are gigantic differences between UKIP and the SNP, but they both rage against the "Westminster establishment", and offer "independence" as the universal solution to all sorts of problems.

The SNP are a vastly more competent, rational, and plausible outfit than UKIP. They didn't convince a majority to back Scottish independence in last year's referendum. On the other hand, they came closer than anyone expected. The polls narrowed drastically in the final weeks of the campaign. What had been a steady lead of 20+ points for No (to independence) shrank to only 10 points on polling day.

I still think (and as a UK resident, devoutly hope) there will be a No vote to Brexit. But I also think it may be a lot closer than the polls currently indicate.

Wouldn't a Grexit gone badly provide momentum against EU membership?

Well we now have a deal and a date (June 23rd) for the referendum.

And the deal does require eventual treaty change in order to exempt the UK from the "ever closer union" provision and for some other envisioned amendments.

What do you make of the chances of a Leave vote now Noel? I think some polls had the Leave option in the lead recently.

In general, I'm still sanguine.

Historically, referenda tend to break for the status quo. Consider:




The best tracker that I know of is here:


Considering that the Conservatives are divided on the matter, I'd still predict that the U.K. will stay in.

This prediction is looking shaky, but it ain't over till it's over.

Looks like Leave has won. That certainly is going to shift things.


So what now?

Well, apparently it means Trump is gonna win by sympathetic magic, judging from the randos-on-the-Internet analysis. I can only assume the mainstream media in their wisdom will be playing up the same angle.

The Brexit vote crossed ideological borders in a way Trump is not well-positioned to do. It may point to where the Republican Party is headed after the election (emphasis on economic nationalism and populism over conservatism).

So in Dr. Maurer's ATL, Rubio is the GOP nominee and the Brits voted to stay in the EU. Diverging further and further from our reality...


And in that world, this Copa America game is the final, not the third place game.


What a divergence though.

And now we seem to have messy uncertainty in the UK. It seems that the ones with any sense of planning and preparedness are the SNP and EU officials/other European leaders. The Brexit brigade have been busy reneging on claims and promises while the government seems to be adrift after Cameron's resignation speech.

Very messy. Cameron should have resigned immediately and called for a special Conservative Party conference to elect a new Tory leader before the end of June. New PM would then invoke Article 50 and begin negotiations.

With some leave voters regretting their choice and Cameron having caked for a referendum on his own initiative (not in response to a popular petition for it) I think the appropriate term for these events is "Brexident"...or maybe just "oops!"

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