« The existing debate on the Paraguayan War | Main | Paraguayan demographics in the late 19th century »

April 29, 2015

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Well a total population fall of 22% is a lot closer to the 18% high estimate in your previous post. And the 22% estimate is itself likely to be high since the 1870 estimate of 217,000 is a likely minimum for the time. When the territorial losses (though involving sparsely populated areas), undercounts, uncompensated deaths due to lower fertility during the war and refugees are considered the excess mortality due to the war might well be around 10-15%. A lot of those would probably have been adult men. Now that would be definitely devastating and it would touch on probably almost every household. In fact it might be more accurate to randomly guess that 70-90% of Paraguayan families were directly affected by the war rather than 70-90% of the adult males being killed.

J.H., I think that is an excellent summation: "70-90% of Paraguayan families were directly affected by the war rather than 70-90% of the adult males being killed."

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