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Grexit, yes, still on the list. (And were I a Greek minister, I suspect I would prefer capital controls followed by Grexit to sucking an additional 1.5% of GDP out of my economy this year and 3.0% the next.) But Brexit? Nope.
First, the polls do not favor it now. Second, I suspect that David Cameron will campaign against it, just as he did against electoral reform. With the election behind him, he would be insane not to do so.
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I don’t disagree with you, and as a firm pro-European I really hope you are right.
But there is a funny mood in my country at the moment. An EU referendum will only be the third UK wide referendum we’ve had. There is a possibility that it becomes a de facto referendum on whether we respect our politicians and our political process.
As Nick Clegg said about the electoral reform referendum, it became a referendum about whether the voters wanted to give Nick Clegg a kick.
Posted by: Dan Sutton | February 20, 2015 at 04:15 AM
Might the general election reduce the desire to register a protest vote on the referendum? I ask mostly because it seems as if the British public are about to violate Duverger's Law en masse and vote for third parties in record numbers.
I'm not in Britain, so I can imagine the post-election mood going either way: (1) protest registered, back to normal now; or (2) even greater post-election anger once people realize that FPTP has kept their votes from making much of a difference.
Posted by: Noel Maurer | February 20, 2015 at 08:45 AM