Somehow I doubt that China will replace its imports from Europe and the Middle East with imports from the east coast of the Americas. I also doubt that in any realistic scenario export channels to the east coast of the United States (where Nicaragua and Suez really are substitutes) would be disrupted enough to make it worth the cost.
But who knows? Like I said, the only way this thing gets built is if China backs it with sovereign wealth. Maybe they will risk it.
Here is a project for a Thailand canal!
http://sinoshipnews.com/News/China-linked-to-Thai-canal-plans/3w3c3597.html?utm_source=The+Sinocism+China+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c7746e6d4e-Sinocism02_04_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_171f237867-c7746e6d4e-24519865&mc_cid=c7746e6d4e&mc_eid=405bddbc50
Could be that this is just a mania, or something...like the theme amusement park mania, or the golf course mania, investment craze like that, only just on another scale. Tolerated, because if crazy rich guy didn't do this, he might decide to do something the bureaucrats like much less and cause work...
Posted by: shah8 | February 16, 2015 at 02:33 AM
Well a Thai Canal would have the benefit of allowing for shipping in the unlikely event of all of Indonesia's waters being closed off for some reason....it would certainly seem like a better "insurance canal" for such a scenario than a Nicaragua canal, no?
Posted by: J.H. | February 17, 2015 at 09:14 AM
Yes it would! You'd still have the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, though.
It's a weird scenario what closes the South China Sea but leaves more northerly commerce untouched. Clearly not war with the U.S. or Japan.
Posted by: Noel Maurer | February 17, 2015 at 10:12 AM
Well the only scenario I can think of where this would be appropriate is an Indonesian collapse scenario where all of Indonesia's waters are closed off, possibly due to piracy concerns. But then in such a scenario, the waters off the Kra Isthmus should also be fairly dangerous.
On the other hand a Kra Isthmus Canal would cut out transit times compared to using the Straits of Malacca wouldn't it?
Posted by: J.H. | February 17, 2015 at 02:27 PM