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February 08, 2015


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My mind has never left insider land speculation, with suckers holding swamp land in the end.

I'm with you on that, with the caveat that some of the subprojects will probably be built.

What I'm curious is whether there is a reason for the Chinese government to pay for this thing.

You've got me, guv'nor

two guesses

1) Chinese government is paranoid about having an alternative shipping access than "US controlled Panama", scare quotes, natch.

2) Internal factions in SOE fought it out, and the losers got this sweetener for cooperation.

My bet is on the first one. Remember, China does a number of internal projects that doesn't really make sense and is a net negative, out of a need for psych security blanket--like the North South water project sending super expensive water to Shandong or something. China wanted a diplomatic friend, and wanted a *useful* diplomatic friend, and spending money on them like the Soviets used to do with Cuba. The good lord knows this doesn't really have ROI of anything China does in Africa

China has the most to lose once the US dollar becomes old fashioned.

Building and/or buying tangible assets and diversifying those investments abroad like cheap Africa and Latin Americas make a good business/investment sense in the macro perspective.

China is known for a long term strategic play. Don't be deceived by those Chinese eyes, they can see very far and very wide. Trust me, I'm married to one.

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