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January 18, 2015


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You aren't missing anything I think....other than that it is a very good talking point from a journalistic point of view. In fact this much is acknowledged by Matt Yglesias in a contrary view quoted by Tyler Cowan in your link to all the recent talk about Grexit.

As was already established over two years ago (http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2012/05/we-been-saying-this-for-a-while-now.html#comments and http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2013/03/i-was-wrong-about-the-euro-but-that-turns-out-to-be-a-bad-thing-for-europe.html#comments), the legal complications means you have to get very far along in a scenario of banking system and economic collapse before you get a government carrying out a euro-exit with popular support. And as you adequately described (http://noelmaurer.typepad.com/aab/2013/04/why-cyprus-wont-leave-the-eurozone.html), there are many losers and winners from an exit, but a lot of politically powerful short-term losers which makes euro-exit a non-starter for governments unless things go REALLY bad.

And as this legal analysis (http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-beginning-of-end-for-euro-eu-law.html) notes, SYRIZA's goal isn't even to leave the EU or the euro, so really, all this talk is really more or less empty talk with very little foundation.

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