Department of The Wire: the Maryland gubernatorial election. In a huge suprise, Republican Larry Hogan beat Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown by almost five points. This was a wowzer, given how blue Maryland is and how all the polls predicted a Brown victory ... although to be fair to the pollsters, there were no public polls in the final month of the campaign.
So what happened?
“Black people didn’t vote,” says my source in the Prince George’s County government. (Who says I’m not plugged in? Take that, Luke!) Further calls to my people in Bethesda, Silver Spring, and Bowie revealed two further explanations: the rain tax and Anthony Brown’s apparent failure to campaign. There are no exit polls, unfortunately, so there is no way to parse the data further.
(I have some more to say about the rain tax. Anyone interested? Bueller?)
All we know is that 46% of registered voters went to the polls in 2014, down from 73% in 2012 and (more relevantly) 53% in the 2010 gubernatorial election.* Which is consistent with the “black people didn’t vote” explanation as well as the two reasons put forth for why they did not vote. More information tomorrow after a visit to middle-class voters in Baltimore County.
But this election does mean that Thomas Carcetti will not become President.
ADDENDUM: 2010 turnout can be calculated from data here and here. 2012 turnout can be calculated from data here and here. 2012 turnout can be calculated from data here and here. The data refer interchangeably to“eligible” and “registered” voters but it is clear from context that they mean registered.
I did some more poking around the Maryland election website cited above. In 2014, Governor O’Malley won 1,044,961 votes to win by 268,642. Comparing 2014 to 2010, turnout in the aforementioned Prince George’s County (65% black and and 84% Democratic by registration) fell by 20,403. Turnout in Baltimore City (63% black and 84% Democratic) fell by 26,390. Turnout in Baltimore County (26% black and 60% Democratic) fell by 29,039. And turnout in Montgomery County (16% black and 61% Democratic) fell by 46,122. The total fall in turnout in the state’s four big black and Democratic counties dropped in total by 121,954.
Wow. That is some serious lack of charisma from Anthony Brown ... or at least an incredible level of annoyance at the rain tax. “I can’t bring myself to vote for a Republican, but Larry doesn’t seem to have taken any crazy pills and I am annoyed at that rain tax. So to hell with it, I’ll stay home.” Hogan ran a vacuous campaign, but so did Brown. Actually, click that last link ... Brown ran a terrible campaign, worse than vacuous. Add to that the strong national headwind and ... wow.
Why do I care? After all, I live across the border in D.C. and Hogan is no apocalyptic Tea Partier; he isn’t even a Free State version of Scott Walker. But he does have the power to kill the Purple Line. And that would be a bad thing that would make my life worse. My hope is that strong support from the business community and the fact that the project is getting lots of federal cash will change his mind. Those same arguments didn’t convince Chris Christie or Rick Scott when faced with similar dilemmas, but Christie was running for President and Rick Scott was facing a silly project. (Scott is also an idiot.) So there is hope.
Comments