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February 27, 2014


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A couple of points:

1) Maduro's lasting injury so far is to his left, and not to the right, essentially from corruption and urban/rural divides. The MUD is still a collective of opposition forces, with smaller parties that don't have financial and organizational firepower as the further right (original centrist COPEI and DA) elements.

2) That lasting vulnerability to his left wasn't targeted by the MUD in the municipal elections of 12/2013, as they put out an effectively neoliberalish program as well as run against Maduro's public figure, especially on his competence. This turned out to be ineffective as it resulted in a serious loss of those gains from the national plebiscite.

So the shift to the MUD in the national election wasn't very permanent. It does suggest that the MUD can win a majority if they were to tack more to the left, or figure out how to outflank Maduro to the left on some issues. Of course, they'd actually have to *want* to do that. What I think will happen is that one of the sane elements of MUD will break off and try to build more currently centrist/flexible rightist party that makes a bigger effort at actually convincing people that they have a good path forward.

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