The 2012 election in Mexico, early musings

 On Saturday there was a massive student march against the candidacy of Enrique Peña Nieto, the PRI candidate for the presidency of Mexico.

I have been asked more times than I can remember (by friends, family, and complete strangers, including taxi drivers and bartenders who are well-aware that I am a gringo) who I would vote for in the Mexican election. As with the United States, the answer is easy. I cannot vote for Andrés Manuel López Obrador for the simple reason of his reaction after the 2006 election.

So you cannot vote for the PRD in this election. If Ebrard were the candidate, things would be different, but he is not. AMLO, no f---ing way.

Then there is Mr. Peña Nieto. Uh. Erm. Uh-huh. Next post will discuss his campaign, which is actually somewhat amusing. I will even discuss the various positions on health policy. The problem is that I do not believe that he is not corrupt. Moreover, he is a member of a party that has not abandoned corruption. This is one of the few cases where my academic research and my heart push in the same direction: institutions matter more than policies, and regardless of policies, Enrique Peña Nieto and his party will not be good for the institutions.

Which leaves us with Josefina Vázquez Mota. Were I voting in the Mexican election, she would have my vote. With little enthusiasm, sadly. But she would have it. Am I wrong? I have PRD relatives, but they are not talking to me about the election. (Baseball yes, U.S. politics yes, Mexico no.) So help me out! Am I wrong? Who should an informed Mexican vote for? 

Comments

[m.m.]

I agree with you. Vázquez Mota seems to be the least bad option. However, I rather have AMLO than Peña as president. I'm voting for whomever is in second place. Sadly, the PRI will win the presidential election and a majority in Congress...

[pc]

Agreed on AMLO and EPN, but I don't think I could pull the trigger for JVM. Quadri maybe? Write-in of Ebrard? Whatever the case, this is the worst slate of candidates in at least 30 years.

[Jan-Albert Hootsen]

Peña Nieto is a no go. I know some of the folks in his campaign (nasty people), and as a resident of Estado de México I´ve seen first hand what a horrible administrator he has been. Behind him are forces unknown to most, of whom we have no idea what they want or which concessions EPN made for their support. As you said: institutions matter more than policies, and seeing as how federal institutions would suffer a PRI-purge when he comes to power those people would get in, which worries me deeply (assuming that at least a number of the very questionable people who worked with EPN during his stint as a governor will follow him to Los Pinos).

AMLO? Maybe. As much as I agree with you on your disliking of his activities in 2006, I still think he´s a better alternative to the PAN than EPN. Problem would be his mandate: the PRD holds only a few states and comes in third in congress, which would make any proposed change to the constitution (which is vital to any political reform) almost impossible. He´d be pretty much a lame duck president anyway. Voting for him would be more of a statement than a choice for sounds government.

JVM has the same problem, even though the PAN has more power than the PRD. The fact that her campaign is a train wreck is not relevent with regard to her persona. I´d vote for her, because at least the party is more united than the PRD. I also believe she´s the better choice because she doesn´t propose any real sweeping changes, but seems to be a gradual reformer.