Anglo-French forces have begun making helicopter strikes from carriers in support of rebel operations. They join the Anglo-French air sorties (which now outnumber U.S. sorties by a growing margin) and the Anglo-French ships that have been shelling shore targets in support of the rebels in Misurata. (War nerds should click the second link.) William Hague, meanwhile, was in Benghazi two days ago.
It is an excellent level of support. (Everyone should read this comment by Doug Muir, and this post by Alex Harrowell, at which point somebody should answer the queries they raise.) But four days ago one country put them all to shame, a most unexpected country: Italy. Yes, Italy. Home of the oil company that seriously thought it could reclaim its oil from Gaddafi. Home of one of the Colonel’s biggest friends. Land of the supremely bizarre “Friendship Treaty” between the Italian Republic and the Grand Arab Libyan Popular Socialist Jamahiriya. Italy!
Ever since Gaddafi demonstrated that he could hit rebel oil production, the rebel government has been hard up for cash. (The one tanker that they got out has finally been purchased by a refinery in Hawaii.) Legal confusion in the United States has held up the rebels’ ability to access Gaddafi’s assets, or use them as collateral for loans. (The recent sale of rebel oil to Hawaii is an indication that this fog may be lifting.) So how is the rebel government going to get the foreign exchange that it needs?
Enter Italy. Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, said Rome would, through Eni and UniCredit SpA, “provide the [rebel] council for the needs of the Libyan people with a huge quantity of fuel and a huge amount of money.” He added: “We are talking about billions of euros that is not money of the regime. This is money of the people of Libya. [These] important frozen assets can represent a very valid guarantee for this transfer of money to the Libyan people.”
In the absence of NATO forces capable of hitting irregular government troops far inland, then the only way to get resources to the rebels is to let them borrow against government assets. British training is all well and good, but the rebels need air support, and right now they do not have it outside a narrow coastal band. So ... Italy just won huge credit by offering cash. Stratfor likes to insist that the Anglo-French effort is all about securing petroleum contracts at Italian expense: if so, Rome just blew a hole in that idea. The rebels should look at Eni et al pretty favorably ... and the decision to channel the lending through Eni only reinforces that.
On the other hand, Britain seems to be training the rebels on the ground. Serious rebel training would obviate the worries about the oil fields, by allowing the rebels to coordinate with foreign air forces operating at high altitudes. (To be frank, getting the rebels into some sort of recognizeable — and hard to copy — uniform would help.) That will also be quite thanked.
In short, the postwar question will be: does concrete Italian financial support outweigh concrete Anglo-French military support? I suspect that given the legal mess, the former will prevail. But then again, I never did believe the idea that Cameron’s and Sarkozy’s decisions had been driven by a desire to have their national companies (particularly BP) seize formerly-Italian production contracts. That said, Rome seems to have found an easy (and almost costless) way to insure that its interests will survive the conflict.
It would be nice if the U.S. would move as quickly in unfreezing Libyan assets. It was a heroic effect to clear the Hawaiians to import rebel crude, but there is more to do. Britain and France, it is time to start serious lawfare.
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