The problem is that the Egyptian air force is probably not up to the mission. Here are some (decade-old) quotes from U.S. officers on the quality of Egyptian air force training:
- “They know where to turn, and where to pretend to fire munitions, and who is going to win.”
- “They fly our planes and use our tactics, but you would never know it.”
- “Egyptian exercises are totally canned: they aren’t for training, they’re for show.”
In addition, the experience with Egyptian forces in Gulf War 1 was not very good. Egyptian maintenance was terrible: depot-level maintenance still needs to be performed in the United States. Worse yet, there occasions of Egyptian units effectively fabricating engagements when they in fact met no resistance. Finally, compartmentalization in the Egyptian military was awful; rarely was there any one single officer with full operational knowledge.
It is possible that things have improved, but it isn’t how I would bet. From a 2004 report: “More generally, the Egyptian air force cannot compete with the Israeli air force in overall battle management, the exploitation of modern sensors and targeting systems, electronic warfare, beyond-visual-range warfare, and in using precision strike and attack munitions. It also focuses more on numbers than sustainability, and has limited ability to sustain high sortie rates.” Admittedly, Libya is not Israel, but the chances are very high that Egyptians strikes would not be effective. Moreover, the Egyptian military has developed a commercial empire, with an entrenched officer class: historically, these are not things that are conducive to military effectiveness.
In short, if the U.N. is going to use airpower to stop the Libyan advance on the rebels, that airpower has to come from Western armed forces.
"Moreover, the Egyptian military has developed a commercial empire, with an entrenched officer class: historically, these are not things that are conducive to military effectiveness."
One can only hope that this holds for China. :^)
Posted by: Bernard Guerrero | March 19, 2011 at 11:50 AM
Are there actually any examples of competent Arab militaries, where competent would be could beat any of the NATO militaries given a 2:1 numerical advantage?
Posted by: Barry Cotter | March 19, 2011 at 12:44 PM
Barry: Not that I know of. Jordan comes closest. Strangely, all of the Arab militaries --- but especially Libya --- have historically been very good at logistics. They have been capable of sustaining large forces across vast distances.
Bernard: I had the same thought. I wouldn't count on it, though.
Posted by: Noel Maurer | March 19, 2011 at 03:23 PM