How did Libyan troops manage to advance on Brega so rapidly? I am not surprised that the opposition fell apart; I am surprised that NATO airstrikes failed to disrupt regime movements. This looks like bad contingency (3): “rebel tactical incompetence leads to operational disaster.” Here is the best story that I have been able to find.
People who have not served in a military force (or a similar large organization) can underestimate the importance of simple discipline. It will take a long time to train the rebels. If Allied airpower cannot keep the Libyan army from advancing even without communication and coordination with the ground, then the rebellion is doomed. That seems to be the problem: since the rebels have nothing resembling an organization, there is no way to distinguish between the Libyan military (given their new tactics) and the rebels. If the rebels were an actual military force, even a badly-trained force, this would not be a problem.
I have to admit to being surprised at how quickly the rebels have abandoned Ras Lanuf and Brega. The Libyan military is showing more cleverness than I expected.
For what it is worth, I would strongly caution against arming the rebels. Does anyone know of a source for Libyan information from someone with command experience? This is a time when a real warblog by somebody who knew of what they spoke would provide real value.
We're also headed for "and then Bashir al-Assad massacres a bunch of people." The speech today was surprisingly daft in grasping the situation and finding a way to deescalate without substantial risk to the regime, running starkly contrary to his prior policy conduct, which is much of a muchiness.
Posted by: Luke the S | March 30, 2011 at 11:09 PM