Well, yesterday some news broke that was so predictable that I am embarrassed at not predicting it. It turns out that the Saudi government is unhappy with the U.S. decision to use our aid as a lever to prevent the Egyptian army from shooting protestors. It is even less happy that we might now use same to convince the Egyptian army to pack Mubarak off into (not very) early retirement. Dissatisfied with the way that we are running things, the Saudis threatened to replace our support dollar-for-dollar.
Saudi Arabia has deep links with the United States. The above picture was taken in an Aramco compound in the country; it is no coincidence that it bears a frightening resemblance to the view from my brother’s backyard in Coral Springs, Florida. The nationalization of Aramco was uncontentious, favorable to the companies, and served American goals. Only twice have Saudi and American interests substantially diverged: briefly in 1973 when the Saudis embargoed oil shipments, a stand they rapidly reversed; and substantively in the past two decades with Saudi financing for Islamic radical movements. And to be fair, the Saudis have been increasingly helpful in combatting terrorist finance, although their best is not always that good. “We are trying, but if money wants to go it will go,” said Prince Mohammed bin Nayef in May 2009.
The break over Egypt, though, portends a deeper split. The U.S. has decided that it really does not get much from keeping Mubarak in power. The alternative is not really that scary, and might even be better. Riyadh has decided something different. Now, I do not think that Riyadh is going to get what it wants here, but if you want to look for signs of the American empire cracking at the seams, this is a pretty good one.
A second takeaway is that Saudi Arabia doesn’t really care about Islamic extremism. Of course, we knew that already.
Guess they didn't get what they wanted after all.
Posted by: Peter | February 11, 2011 at 06:18 PM
Granted, I just got done with 12 hours in transit, but:
What is the utility of replacing US aid dollar for dollar anyway? As I understand it, a great deal of that aid is military in nature; how exactly is a dollar for dollar replacement going to get Egypt replacement parts for M1A1s and F-16s? I suppose its irrelevant now, but that strikes me as a threat that's both deeply counter productive and fairly hollow.
Posted by: James | February 14, 2011 at 12:19 AM
That's an excellent point. (More in terms of training than kit, per se.) It's one of the reasons the Saudis didn't get their way.
The significance, I think, is that they made the threat at all. The fact that it is, as you point out, mostly hollow only underscores how much Riyadh thinks its interests have diverged from America.
Quite the cock-up on the Saudi side, but I can't see them overreacting at all if they didn't feel strongly about the issue.
The fact that the Saudis leaked the news also seems to have some significance --- this wasn't Wikileaks.
Posted by: Noel Maurer | February 14, 2011 at 11:21 AM
I was reading your post and this is awesome article one of the best post keep it up and good job.
Posted by: egypt | October 05, 2012 at 09:15 AM