The Sicilianization of northern Mexico?

 King-Walters asks what effect the Juárez violence is having on the rest of northern Mexico. The direct effect is pretty small. Hundreds of thousands of people have left Juárez, but they have mostly gone to El Paso. Villa Ahumada and Chihuahua City look more prosperous and developed than they did when I was last there in 2004.

 

But the violence is spreading. Yesterday I got the news about the massacre at a party at a hotel in Torreón, Coahuila. At first, I thought it was the same place I stayed in a month ago. It turned out not to be ... but it was a recreation hall in an equally nondescript suburban part of the city. There are some very worrying signs. My friend Michael told me the even was called the “Electro Party Gay,” and Gancho confirms. He also reports that the party was scheduled to be over by the time the gunmen burst in. That latter fact makes it unlikely (but not impossible) that it was a hit. Warning notes of unknown provenance have surfaced.

Rather, it was probably extortion. When I was in Torreón, I was told about (but did not see) the little Z stickers that you find on alcohol sold at certain stores, meaning that the owner has paid the Zetas their take. The Familia, a Michoacán-based mafia that is branching nationally, appeared to have warned people in Torreón not to have anything to do with the Zetas ... and the massacre followed a series of gun battles in the city, including one near the hotel where I stayed.

The violence is spreading. Four states border Chihuahua; homicide has risen in all of them. That said, things need to stay in perspective. Coahuila’s homicide rate would still fit comfortably within the United States, having risen to the level of Maryland. Sonora’s rate has soared past Louisiana and Puerto Rico, but is still around the same as it was in the early 1990s. (A time when bandits hijacked entire trains and chilangos feared to drive to the States through the state.) Sinaloa has always been violent; I saw narcos walk into a barbacoa place, put guns on the table, and scare the hell out of the other patrons (or at least me) back in the 1990s. That said, it is certainly possible that killings in Coahuila and elsewhere will soar in the next few years. The signs are there.

My worry is that it may not be about drugs. Rather, my worry is that it is about everything; that gangs are fighting it out to establish themselves as Mexico’s version of the Cosa Nostra or ‘Ndrangheta. Extortion and racketeering, drugs and vice. The end result would see violence decline ... along with economic growth, political democracy, and Mexico’s prospects. Organized crime is the issue in Mexico right now: you can follow the ins-and-outs at Ganchoblog.

Michoacán (where I have to say I have not been) may provide an example of the future. 

Comments

[pc]

I think that you've really nailed what's changed in the past few years. When Calderón came in and promised a more aggressive approach, some people were worried that drug gangs would move on to bank robbery and kidnapping to supplement their income, but I don't think anyone saw this coming. The extortion is truly rampant here, maybe not everywhere, but certainly across most of the North.

[pc]

Also, regarding the soaring violence, in Torreón, it's there already. I think the annualized murder rate over the first quarter this years was like 70 or 80 per 100,000. As recently as 2006, it was not very different from anywhere else in the state, but it's gotten worse every year since.

[Diego]

Are you using the data from the "Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Publica" (Mexican Police) cause they tend to be notoriously corrupt. The true murder rate in Chihuahua in 2008 was 76 and in 2009 about a 100.

chihuahua City and Ahumada had a murder rates of 52 and 94 in 2008.

[Noel Maurer]

Hi, Diego! Yes, it ultimately comes from the SNSP. Where do you get your data?

[Noel Maurer]

Just checked your blog. I noticed the same problem as you did in the '09 data for Chihuahua. I recommend everyone read this.