President Arias of Costa Rica just announced that his government will recognize the results of the Honduran election. President Obama has been saying the same since the half-collapse of the U.S. attempt to broker a compromise, but now that someone of Arias's stature has signed on, it is pretty much over for Zelaya. The clock will run out.
The U.S. has handled things as well as could be expected. For all my expressed (and ironic, for those of you who didn't pick that up) frustration at the lack of American power in Honduras, the truth is that Washington could have been much more muscly and forebearing. It is a good thing (for the United States) that we were not.
Brazil, not so much. When it comes to the politics of energy, investment, and cross-border crime, the Brazilian administration has been very good at speaking softly and carrying a big stick. When it came to a coup outside the country's normal sphere of influence, reverse it. It wasn't bad until the declaration that they wouldn't recognize the elections, at which point it became pretty clear that Brasilia did not have much of a plan. Moral stances are well-and-good, but absolute moral stances can do harm to the position that they are meant to support.
Add the strange decision to invite the Iranian president for a visit to the Honduran imbroglio, and one has to wonder if Lula really knows how to play this game at the level his country has found itself at. To be fair, he's been very good when his country's interests have really been at stake, so maybe I should stop complaining.
It seems to me what would have been inconsistent would be for Brazil to desert Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela -- countries that really matter for Brazil -- in exchange for Costa Rica. These countries have just reiterated their non-recognition of this election. Now, the way is being paved for a solution by the suggestion (Arias`, in fact) that the handover to Lobo not come from Micheleti. This could be the out for the Southern Cone countries, a modicum of lawfulness. But this isn`t an issue that directly pits Brazil on a collision course with any other bloc, nor with the US`s own ambiguous response, so there`s no real price to pay for Lula. But internally, he would pay a price were he to desert Zelaya so early in the game. I don`t see how else he could handle this.
Posted by: Henry Cunha | December 13, 2009 at 01:42 AM