Back to Angola

  The Portuguese empire collapsed in Africa under the worst possible conditions.  After 15 years of bloody conflict, a military coup in Lisbon replaced the existing government with one that wanted to get the hell out of Africa yesterday.  The result was a chaotic flight of a half-million Portuguese settlers back to the metropole.  Over the subsequent decades, Portugal attracted some immigration from its former colonies, but other the Cape Verde (a country that almost certainly would have preferred to remain united with the metropole) it was never great.  As of 2007, only 33,000 Angolans lived in Portugal.  The reasons were simple.  First, it cost a whole lot of money to get to Portugal from Angola, and most Angolans were poor and getting poorer.  Second, Portugal shut the door to the citizens of its former colonies.  Third, Portugal itself wasn’t exactly a glowing destination for immigrants. 

But now it looks like the Portuguese are headed to Angola.  And not in small numbers, either.  Something like 17,000 people moved to Angola in 2006, followed by 24,000 in both 2007 and 2008.  So far this year they’re moving at an annual rate of 31,000.  Of course, 31,000 people is only 0.3% of Portugal’s population and 0.2½% of Angola’s, but still.   

The question is whether they’ll stay.  I tend to doubt it.  First, while Angola’s economy is exploding, it is pretty much all due to oil.  Most of the growth pulling in Portuguese expats (and Portuguese capital) is construction-driven and paid for out of government revenues.  To be frank, I would bet that the boom will last for a while, but the challenge for Angola is making the growth permanent.  Not that Gabon is a terrible outcome, but turning into Gabon is something that happens once, after which the foreigners who came in to help build stuff turn around and go home. 

Second, some of the movement is driven by a crappy economy in Portugal.  That could also turn around.

Finally, it isn’t all clear that Angola will be that welcoming.  Expats from the developed world go to all sorts of places.  Relatively few of them settle down and raise families outside their home, and even then mostly in other developed countries.  (Right, Doug?)  The French in Gabon, for example, are clearly an expat community and not part of the local fabric.  In Côte d’Ivoire they’ve mostly gone home.

So while this is a neat story, I’ll bet that it won't have much lasting effect on Angola.  I would like to be wrong.  Thoughts?

Comments

[Peter]

Expats from the developed world go to all sorts of places. Relatively few of them settle down and raise families outside their home, and even then mostly in other developed countries.

I'm trying to think of some exceptions, but nothing comes to mind. Some Americans, mostly retirees, have settled in Costa Rica, but I don't know how much they've integrated into local society. Chances are they remain a distinct expat community. In any event, being retirees, they're not raising families in their new country.

[Hugo]

Some tidbits to help fine-tune your analysis:
- there are plenty more Angolans in Portugal than you assume (i.e. those with African ethnicity) because if they were born before 1974 they had Portuguese nationality. Likelywise, their kids that were born in Portugal also have Portuguese nationality
- It's the same with Indians (mostly Goans). Officially there's some 12-15 thousand Indian citizens in Portugal, but in fact there's some 100 thousand ethnic Indians. Same applies to other former colonies.
- Lots of the Portuguese (whites) going back to Angola were actually born there, or their parents lived there a long time...

So I don't know how likely these Portuguese are to stay, but they are probably more "adapted" to life in Angola than, for instance, those French in Gabon.

[Doug M.]

You're thinking of developed-country emigrants to the developing world? And not of (for instance) colonial remnants like the British of Kenya or the Greeks in Burundi. Okay.

There's a small community of French expats in Senegal. Most are retirees, but a handful are not; I met or heard of two families who seemed to have settled there. A bit closer to home, there are a few thousand mainland Americans permanently resident in Samoa.

I would imagine there's a similar sprinkling across the less scary parts of the developing world. For raising families, poverty per se is less important than security and access to good health care.

Are we including mixed families here? French male, engineer or accountant or some such, goes to Senegal and ends up settled with a nice local girl? Because that runs the numbers up fast.

Doug M.

[ironrailsironweights.wordpress.com]

There may not be many Angolans in Portugal, but they're positively legion compared to Mozambiquans (if that's the right term). Mozambique is bigger than Angola but has only about a fifth as many migrants in Portugal. Even Sao Tome has twice as many.

Peter

[dolo]

dear peter mozambique is not bigger than angola get your facts rigth. angola 1.246.700km population of 16 million, Mozambique 801.590 km population of 20 million 22 million

[Noel Maurer]

Hi, Dolo! I think Peter only meant to say that Mozambique has a higher population than Angola. I don't think he was referring to land area.