Demography matters, and a music video

  There is an interesting (if rarely updated) blog called “Demography Matters.” It's hit a few interesting topics lately.  Randy McDonald is the driving force behind it.  For those of you who don't know him, he wrote the defining takedown of the whole “Eurabia” nonsense, aka the idea that immigration and differential birthrates will eventually give Europe a Muslim majority.  But the blog is a lot more than that.

Here is a discussion of Greenland.  Short version:  considering the country's dependence on Danish expats for skilled labor, even a non-independence independence of the sort negotiated by other microstates could lead to disaster.  The population is shrinking despite high birthrates.  Maybe they'll get lucky and find oil.  More likely they will remain a dependency of Denmark forever, most likely de jure but definitely de facto.

The blog also recently discussed Iran.  Short version:  looks like Europe!  Crashing birthrates could fuel an economic boom if only the place could get the policies right.  In comments there is an interesting discussion of the fact that American birthrates have stayed above replacement ... and that much of that difference is because urban birthrates in the U.S. aren't appreciably different from their suburban or rural equivalents.  The really weird fact?  Canadian birthrates are crazy lower than U.S. ones, even in such similar places as Washington and British Columbia. 

Finally, it presents a scary version of Cuba's future, in which the country enters a demographic death spiral.  All it lacks is a projection of the worst case scenario: what would Cuba's population and age pyramid look like in 2050 if it goes the way of Ukraine and stays there?

Below the fold is a music video.  It is for Randy, for reasons he understands.  Essentially, while not my cup of tea, it shows what can be accomplished in his preferred genre in both aural and visual terms when attempted by two rather accomplished artists.  Enjoy.

Comments

[Randy McDonald]

Thanks for the video! Question: What are you into?

The Canadian-US fertility differential is something I've blogged about at DM, albeit not as successfully as we'd have liked. Cohort fertility in Quebec is ~1.6; I suspect that English Canada is pretty much at the same level. The differences are such that either public policies are responsible, or that there are more significant differences between English Canadian and American cultures than is commonly assumed.

[Peter]

The major public policy difference between the United States and Canada that comes to mind is Canada's health care system, and if anything that should favor higher fertility in Canada.

[Noel Maurer]

Randy asks what [music] I'm into. Answer: damfino! Best I can do is send you here and contemplate making an update when I've got some time to waste.

[Noel Maurer]

Spam is getting more sophisticated. How do they get past the filters?