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February 11, 2009

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I have a question on such a graph. Do we have similar data for systems that got sand in the gearbox of the financial sector? Or are the economies where that happened to different from the U.S. to be able to draw any comparisons?

I don't have time to pull up the data, but it exists. I believe that Mexico recovered rapidly from the 1994-95 collapse, at least in terms of total employment.

One difference that I can imagine (Dave?) is that many of them were small economies in a world economy that continued to tick along nicely. A large devaluation, frex, drove export booms in Mexico and Sweden.

Another, of course, is that the U.S. has famously flexible labor markets. Hire-and-fire at will, no required severance payments.

But those are hypotheses, based on nothing. It would be nice to see the employment time series before making pointless guesses to explain patterns that may not exist.

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