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January 22, 2009


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How accurate is Edward Hugh's posting on the world's economies? If you need to email this and blow away this comment, by all means. I'm curious.

I think that Ed Hugh is very smart and very accurate. That's not to say that I always agree with his interpretations; it is to say that he's a go-to source of info and I have been known to change my opinions after reading his argument.

I have only two general criticisms of his stuff. The minor one is that I'm still not convinced that demography is as important as he claims. That debate, however, has dropped off into second-order as the financial crisis has grown.

My major criticism is that his writing style is, for me, a little difficult to follow. I have to work harder to understand his arguments than I like. This may be because I am lazy, but there is so much good stuff in his posts that I wish he could take the time to write shorter and more cleanly. Nevertheless, since I don't think he makes money off his blog posts, I can't fault him for not putting in more than the incredible amount of effort that he already puts in.

In short, I go to Edward for information and analysis all the time, but I usually need to read him several times to be sure that I understand what he's arguing.

BTW, I agree with Edward's prognosis that China is likely to be hit far more stronger than current economic models predict.

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