Building a machine

Chávez is building a very sophisticated political machine.  And I do mean machine.  The idea is to make key aspects of everyday life dependent on support for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).  It's not Communism; rather, it's Daleyism, put in charge of a country.  Do it right, and there will be no need for secret police or election stealing.  Do it wrong, and your government will eventually (if you're unlucky) start breaking heads or (if you're lucky) become like Mexico.

(Photo courtesy of oilwars.blogspot.com.)

The least machine-like part of the emerging PSUV machine involves the Mercal stores.  The Bolivarian Republic imports food and other basic products (or purchases them from approved suppliers) at market prices, and then resells them to the public through the Mercales.  I visited several; except for the one in a high-priced part of Chacao, there were always lines.  This should not be unexpected, of course.  If the idea is to get basic products into people's hands at subsidized prices, then lines are what should result, if the prices really are subsidized.

The problems?  Well, the first general issue is that it's never clear whether blanket subsidies are an effective poverty-fighting program.  It's also even unclear whether they are an effective vote-getting policy.  After all, Mexico's elected governments (see Chapter Six) have switched to targeted programs, as have Brazil's ... and politicos in both countries are very good at fighting for votes.  Mexico's IMSS and ISSSTE tiendas are no longer subsidized, or crowded, and the Conasupo stores are long gone. 

The second, Venezuela-specific issue is below.   

Subsidies are expensive.  I haven't been able to find any information on how much Venezuela spends on Mercal subsidies.  That doesn't mean that it's out there; that just means that it's hard to find.  This IESA case on the stores, published in 2008, has no data past 2005.  So it's hard to tell whether the government is actually stimulating "food security" or just subsidizing imports, which is probably the last thing it needs to be doing in the middle of an export boom.

In addition, the stores give the government a political hedge against inflation.  For a brief period last year, the government tried to fight rising inflation via price controls.  That led to problems.  (Venezuela reminds me of Mexico back in the 1980s and early 1990s.  Boy, do I have price control stories from back in the day.)  Now, though, the government can let inflation rip while protecting some of its constituents from the worst effects, albeit at a growing fiscal cost. 

Finally, the Mercal stores provide the infrastructure for creating a machine.  It wouldn't be hard to add ration cards or other ID requirements to the stores; accelerating inflation would provide a rationale.  Of course, other income subsidizing programs could also be politicized:  vigorous multi-party politics and a vigilant press is the reason that doesn't happen in Mexico and Brazil, but it has elsewhere.  My instinct, though, is that it would be much easier to politicize access to subsidized stores than access to an income-supplementing program.

Would the PSUV use machine tactics?  Ah, that's the subject for another post, but the answer is yes, and the way that was shown shows social science at its best.  Stay tuned.

But meanwhile, any thoughts on political machines or the Bolivarian Republic?

Comments

[Leticia A.]

I was in Caracas for a couple of months two years ago. It was quite an educational (and surreal) experience. The degree of intervention of the government was quite impressive. Chavez was omnipresent ranging from his weekly show "Aló Presidente" to the red T-shirts worn by supporters.

Let me share one particular episode: International Women's Day. Scores of red T-shirts flooded public spaces. I found quite interesting that a group of women was displaying a large banner with Mr Danger's picture photoshoped to include horns and bloody fangs. The banner read "Venezuelan Women against Iraq's occupation". Moreover, they were singing a very rhythmic chant. Roughly translated: "And we don't feel like being an American colony. And we DO feel like being a Latin American superpower."

I find Chavez's regime too familiar. So many elements remind me of Perón's times. The Bolivarian president's rhetoric for example includes the concept of "organized community". This idea was pivotal in Perón's social strategy. In practice, Chavez's support base is the popular class, his social program derives from favorable terms of trade, and he rewards his followers with extra funding (see the case of the Bolivarian schools). Perón's followers were initially the popular class, the industrialists, and the Catholic Church. Argentina enjoyed favorable terms of trade until 1949. The educational reform was so extensive that my mother learned how to read using the approved Peronist textbook. My mom's first lines were "Evita loves me. I love Evita."

I don't know whether Venezuela will turn repressive or more like Mexico. However, if we look at history we can see that Perón's regime turned quite repressive (to the verge of totalitarian) soon after the terms of trade turned south (well, Evita's death did not help either).

[Anonymous]

YOU SAID: "The idea is to make key aspects of everyday life dependent on support for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). It's not Communism; rather, it's Daleyism, put in charge of a country. Do it right, and there will be no need for secret police or election stealing."

This is an absolutely retarded phrase. There is not a shred of evidence that this is happening in Venezuela. I've lived here for over three years, and know all kinds of families that do not belong to the PSUV, that absolutely hate Chavez, and have voted against him repeatedly, and they still have full access to ALL the benefits of the government, including state health care, education, subsidized food, pensions, etc. etc.

You can join the long list of idiotic reporters who have spread total lies about the reality in Venezuela. You should feel proud.

[Randy McDonald]

Anonymous:

Um, OK, whatever.

Noel:

As I wrote at my blog, that kind of clientelism is pretty familiar to me from PEI, although it's not so much food as jobs. (And, come to think of it, employment insurance payments given to seasonal workers.)

[Noel Maurer]

Hi, Anonymous! I'm just writing to say that I haven't forgotten your comments, and I'd be happy to hear more about your experiences in Venezuela before I post a bit about the Maisanta list and Chavez's political strategy sometime tomorrow or (at the latest, I hope) Monday.

Seriously, I'd like to hear more.