Department of The Wire: the Maryland gubernatorial election. In a huge suprise, Republican Larry Hogan beat Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown by almost five points. This was a wowzer, given how blue Maryland is and how all the polls predicted a Brown victory ... although to be fair to the pollsters, there were no public polls in the final month of the campaign.
So what happened?
“Black people didn’t vote,” says my source in the Prince George’s County government. (Who says I’m not plugged in? Take that, Luke!) Further calls to my people in Bethesda, Silver Spring, and Bowie revealed two further explanations: the rain tax and Anthony Brown’s apparent failure to campaign. There are no exit polls, unfortunately, so there is no way to parse the data further.
(I have some more to say about the rain tax. Anyone interested? Bueller?)
All we know is that 46% of registered voters went to the polls in 2014, down from 73% in 2012 and (more relevantly) 53% in the 2010 gubernatorial election.* Which is consistent with the “black people didn’t vote” explanation as well as the two reasons put forth for why they did not vote. More information tomorrow after a visit to middle-class voters in Baltimore County.
But this election does mean that Thomas Carcetti will not become President.