Some of my Democratic friends have been kvelling about “blueing” Republican voters in Arizona and Georgia, maybe even Utah.
Is that possible? Well, one take is to list the things that President Hillary Clinton would do without control of Congress but with (presumably) a friendly Supreme Court.
Our initial list was fairly radical. In fact, it was something that would quite reasonably give my Republican friends pause. (I am referring to actual real people, not some heuristic.) They would have to believe quite firmly that Donald Trump would be a national disaster to vote for that version of President HRC.
But then we discarded things that required Congress. And we discarded things that Hillary Clinton has never shown any sign of supporting. What was left looks … rather less radical. Other than expanded voting rights and LGBTQ issues, there is nothing that a future GOP united government could not reverse. (To be fair, it would be hard to reverse tightened environmental standards and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau regulations. But it would not be impossible.) And in my experience, a lot of Republicans these days would love to get LGBTQ equality off the table.
So it looks like the kind of thing that would scare many Republicans rather less than the prospect of a President Trump.
Unless we left something out. Or (more likely) we’re using the wrong model of vote determination. But anyway, for your edification, here’s the list, Fourteen Points for the early 21st-century:
- An executive order mandating that federal contractors pay a minimum wage of $15 per hour by the first quarter of 2019. She would certainly wait on this, however, as a show of good faith;
- DACA II: Expand the protections of DACA I to the parents of everyone protected under DAPA. In English: protect the parents of “Dreamers” from deportation as well as the parents of U.S. citizens. Deportations of convicted criminals and undocumented workers will likely remain high, however;
- Use the Department of Education Civil Rights Office to continue to make progress on sexual assault on campus, entrench LGBTQ rights, and limit the scope of Title IX exemptions for religious colleges and universities;
- Appoint an aggressive National Labor Relations Board; extend unionization rights to franchise employees, graduate students, others. Aggressively regulate the 1099 economy, including judicial action when necessary. Expect more settlements;
- Further increase the people eligible for overtime pay through Department of Labor rulemaking. Prosecute wage theft aggressively;
- Continue issuing regulations under Dodd-Frank, including, of course, the CFBP;
- More EPA rulemaking supported by a friendly SCOTUS;
- Federal carbon footprint reporting for all agencies and contractors, to be publically released every Earth Day;
- Increase the amount of federally-protected land, including more historic landmarks for people of color, LGBTQ folks. Pick a fight over Stone Mountain. (Whoops! We broke our rule. A fight over Stone Mountain won’t happen);
- Use the DOJ and FCC to extend internet access to rural Americans and poor urbanites;
- Fully staff the Federal Election Commission;
- Designate federal agencies as voter registration agencies, as per the Brennan Center, so interactions yield voter registration via the IRS, DHS, DOJ, etc;
- Meanwhile, assuming a liberal-majority SCOTUS:
- Strict scrutiny for LTBGQ Americans after Governor McCrory sues the federal government and loses. This would overturn the “religious freedom acts” in the states and effectively grant employment protection;
- Overturn restrictive abortion bans;
- Restore full enforcement of the Voting Rights Act;
- Allow full implementation of DACA;
- Really boring, but expect worker-favorable results of lots of suits about standing and class action suits as a way to help employees (although if Garland is the only new justice SCOTUS becomes marginally less favorable than it would be with an alternative Democratic appointment).
- In foreign policy, few changes. She’ll uphold Obama’s Gitmo executive order, but we’re more likely than not to end up waiting for the last detainee to die down there. The domestic demographics aren’t there for any serious change in relations with Israel, even if she were so inclined, which she’s probably not. Opening an american interests section or embassy in Tehran is a possibility as ISIS grinds onwards and Iraq continues to fail — but it’s not clear that’s going to be much more than symbolic.
In short, pretty much the status-quo with some tinkering.
It doesn’t seem scary. But the GOP is the party that went completely unhinged in accusations of “socialism” and compared Obamacare to slavery. I’m not expecting much outright support for the Democratic candidate from GOP politicians. But it would seem that there isn’t terribly much here to frighten a large plurality of GOP voters.
Unless we’re wrong, of course.