At some point, we need to go through this blog and mark all its beliefs to market. But right now, let us just say that this prediction from December 2014 is looking good. In fact, the prediction is actually from July 2012, where we ran the numbers and predicted that the Assad regime would eventually run out of manpower reserves.
Now it seems that Assad is publicly admitting that he is running out of manpower. Speculation is that this presages serious peace offerings. I would agree with such speculation. What I am less sure of is that any significant portion of the rebel forces, in their current form, will agree.