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October 31, 2017

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Well perhaps like any gambler, the first test of success had gotten to Rajoy leading him to think to bet big again.

It seems to be paying off even better than expected though. When the Catalan secessionists obey orders from Madrid, leave their posts and agree to contest the new elections called by Madrid..all following their very own vote for independence, well they don't seem to be the kind of horse I would back were I a secessionist minded Catalan. After all, if you disobeyed Madrid (both government and the courts) concerning the referendum, when you acknowledged yourself as part of Spain, why now obey when you have explicitly declared you are not a part of Spain? It would have been expected that they would have disobeyed and continued working and not acknowledged Madrid's dissolution and calling for fresh elections. That in turn might have inspired the civil service to also defy orders from Madrid. But once they crumbled there is no way the civil service in Catalonia or the Catalan police will stand up and resist in their place. Puigdemont appearing to flee for Brussels, almost certainly did not help either.

I think it might be a while before a Catalan secession crisis ever threatens Spain again honestly. You would need the current cast of characters (assuming they aren't imprisoned) to decide that next time they will follow through, or you will need an entirely different set of Catalan politicians (and perhaps even parties) to lead a revolt.

Sorry, that should have been "the first taste of success".

What do you think of the new arrests, Noel?

Not boring. Nobody seems to want to go with boring.

Left-wing friends of mine like to claim that the judiciary in Spain is not independent. I’m trying to read up on the poli sci lit on that before judging. I think Rajoy could stop the arrests; “think” isn’t good enough, though.

But it’s not boring. Spain needs boring.

Montreal is a nice city, BTW. Thinking about your post.

I would like to be proved wrong. 2017, man.

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/11/03/how-to-solve-the-catalan-crisis/

But for one man.

I do not know. Is it possible that Rajoy is, if not stupid, simply blinkered? If he is devoted to the idea of a United and preferably unitary Spain and does not think Catalonia can pull off a secession ...

A thought occurred to me,

What if Rajoy is doing this having rightly predicted that:

(a) the PP's policies with regards to the 2006 Statute of Autonomy and towards Catalonia in general would drive up support for the independence parties and

(b) that when a decision point was reached and Catalonia declared independence, that the leaders would back down and the civil service would still take orders from Madrid

in order to drive more economic activity from Catalonia to the rest of Spain?

Yes, this might need tom imagine Rajoy to be a mastermind playing six-demensional chess, but might it be possible?

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