My Photo

« Hoisted from the archives: Cracks in the Maduro machine | Main | Economic growth is not weakening the North Korean dictatorship »

May 05, 2017

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

My attitude is mostly a weary pissed-offness. I don't really care about whether Maduro survives, and I have an abiding contempt for the opposition. To me, Venezuela is part of a longer, slow running crisis of low demand in the third world. It's just at and past crisis point due to its geopolitical isolation, but too many places are quite too close to the edge--it's sort of hard not to look at the triad of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia as vulnerable to the same sort of issues, no matter that they are wealthier and have access to more wealth in the rest of the world. Racial/ethnic issues drive poltical and economic paralysis until things blow up.

As for Venezuela itself, I'm not inclined to believe any loosening of Chavista rule until that actually happens, because I think that fundamentally, you actually do have to have a credibly nationalist opposition for the military to switch sides, and the sheer feckless quality of the opposition doesn't give dissenters in the state machinery the security they'd need for the decision to decisively switch sides. I also believe that Brazil's parliamentary coup (and Trump's antics) has quietly diminished conservative legitimacy in the rest of South America.

Maduro will simply outwait these protests, if there is anything at all in the tank. And if there's nothing at all in the tank and state completely implodes, Venezuela is probably Libya.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)