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May 05, 2017

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"everything he does is still subject to being overturned by the next government". How sure are you about that? In particular, say this govt issues a bond. Will they try to overturn the bond (i.e., claim its invalid)? My understanding is that a U.S. court is unlikely to buy this argument from a new Vene govt...

I was thinking about oil contracts, not bonds. What might happen to new debts issued under Maduro is an interesting question!

As you aver, a new Venezuelan government could claim odious debt. It wouldn't be a great case, but it would be a case! You could claim that any new issue violate the current constitution. Article 312 is pretty clear that "public credit transactions shall require a special law authorizing them."

Right now, though, the legislature isn't approving anything.

It's true that American courts haven't been all that open to this sort of reasoning in the past. But Ecuador's case was weak and abstruse. This seems a lot more clear cut! Doesn't mean that it would win, but I'd give it much higher chances than most.

No?

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