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February 17, 2017

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"Maryland is as gerrymandered as North Carolina, only in favor of Democrats."

Eh, just looking at Congressional, Maryland's 2016 election was 60% Clinton, 34% Trump, so with 8 Districts you'd say a proportional split would be more like 5-3. But note that Maryland pre-2010 was just a 6-2 state, could have been a 8-0 state if Democrats had actually decided to gerrymander to the full extent, instead of being swept up in in-fighting. A nonpartisan redistricting probably only produces 2 GOP seats in Maryland because of the natural base of support in the rural western portion and the eastern shore, while the rest of the GOP vote is just spread out across the suburbs without a significant heft.

So North Carolina in 2016 was 50% Trump, 46% Hillary, so let's say a 7-6 split, right now it's 10-3, and a nonpartisan redistricting would probably make it closer to 7-6 one way or another.

Maryland's congressional gerrymander swings 1 seat out of 8, North Carolina's congressional gerrymander swings 3 or 4 out of 13. I think North Carolina is more egregious.

Sensitive to picking on Maryland because I feel like it just gets national attention because the Washington Post editorial board is pissed they were moved into a different district.

You can test for gerrymandering using the Wang criteria with this tool: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/06/26/an-online-app-to-diagnose-partisan-gerrymandering/

The gaps are pretty large. Along with Illinois, Maryland is one of the two states that seem gerrymandered in favor of Democrats. See here for the 2014 election: http://election.princeton.edu/2015/12/08/the-net-effect-of-gerrymandering-in-nine-states-exceeds-that-of-population-clustering-in-all-50-states/

I actually found out about Maryland's gerrymandering from Wang; I haven't seen it mentioned in the Washington Post.

I would concede that given the pathetic Democratic performance in Maryland in 2014 that they "should" have lost an above average number of seats.

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