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January 24, 2017

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Assuming third times the charm, would you expect AMLO to roll this back? From my vantage point I have a harder time gauging AMLO than Duterte even though both have held previous political office.

Probably not. AMLO will likely do (more) damage to Mexico's democratic institutions, but he's fundamentally pragmatic in a way that Chavez was not.

He'll throw sand into the gears of the energy reform as much as he can without a Congressional majority. (Which will be lot, as we are seeing north of the border.) But he won't deliberately weaken Pemex or state coffers.

Rocío Nahle, the Morena congressional leader, has indicated that she would like to see foreign participation in Mexican refineries. I'd read that as a tea leaf about AMLO's policy.

Amusingly, ex-President Fox blamed AMLO for the gasolinazo. How's that, you asked? Well, prices should have been decontrolled 20 years ago and it was AMLO who blocked it back then.

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