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August 01, 2016

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Last two PA polls were Clinton +9 and Clinton +4.

It's easy to see how Trump could get to 47% or 48% in PA or OH. But those last couple of points to get across the line? Harder.

Obama won PA by 5.4 points last time. Demographically, in four years PA has become very slightly older but also noticeably browner; "white alone" is down to around 77%, and falling. The net movement there is probably around 0.2 or 0.3 points towards the Democrats. So, he has to make up five and a half points. This requires white turnout levels to be really, really high -- and without any gender gap. If significant numbers of white women defect, then there simply aren't enough white males to make up the difference.

Confederate flags, sure. But PA also has one of the country's fastest growing Hispanic and Asian populations. Tighty-whitey is in some ways an even tougher strategy here than in OH or WI.


Doug M.

Agreed. Moreover, the Clinton campaign has recognized that Pennsylvania could swing. They've logically redirected resources from Colorado.

Do you mind if I ask why you go to Chester County?

Shy Tory phenomenon has been a factor benefiting the right in several foreign elections in the last few years. I don't like Cox's choice of anecdotes. If we're in an election where social desirability or even conflicted feelings skew polls, anecdotes may become more predictive.

Gareth: Sure! My friend. He and his wife are from Queens, their three kids get along with our two kids, my cousin Adam lives nearby in the Fairmount section of Philly, and it makes for a great overnight stop on trips to NYC.

I like Chester County. Plenty of farms and trails, a really cute downtown, and I've never been there on a weekday so I don't care about traffic.

Why the question, if you don't mind me asking?

Thanks for the answer. I was curious what attracions were there.

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