Sadly, serious analysts are having to contemplate a Drumpf administration. Alejandro Hope is one of Mexico’s premier security analysts. Here’s a summation of his take:
- Border security: The wall won’t happen, not least because it would be logistical nightmare. But the border will be tightened. As the number of smuggling routes to the U.S. goes down, fighting for those routes on the Mexican side will go up. Much of the security gains of the last five years will be lost;
- Deportation: Right now, deportees go back to their hometowns. But that involves cooperation with Mexico, which will grind to a halt. So border communities will have to deal with a large inflow of deportees, more of whom will have a criminal record than previously. See point 1, above;
- Gun trafficking: Worse;
- General security cooperation: Done for. The money the U.S. currently gives for the Merida Initiative will go away. That is small beans, but it will create mistrust. Moreover, no Mexican politicians will be able to support cooperating with the U.S. “Of course, there would still be cooperation on an agency-to-agency basis (e.g., the DEA would probably continue to work with the Mexican Navy on kingpin takedowns), but it would be far more ad-hoc and far more dependent on personal relationships than at present.”
An unpleasant prospect.