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January 14, 2016

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Sounds about right. It's interesting to see how this meshes with and cuts against Asian-Americans, who defected towards Democrats more sharply as immigration dog whistling got worse, and don't have the other topline policy preferences that would keep the Latino vote out of the GOP even if it stopped being racist.

I'd also love to know what extent racial polarization causes various minority blocks from defecting back to the GOP: not just formerly loyal groups like Muslims and AAPI, but the cross pressures not to be the first group to return to the GOP prematurely, if that makes sense.

The impact of the Asian turn from the GOP may be underestimated. Yet ... the Republicans keep winning state and local elections. Hmm.

They're too diffuse to have a substantial impact, right?

Hawaii and California are already deep blue territory, and beyond that, I'm unclear on whether or not their voting age population is dense enough to make something happen. There are large-ish Vietnamese and Taiwanese populations in Louisiana, and Hmung population in eastern NC, but I assume those populations suffer the same impacts under voter registration laws and ballot access language rules by state.

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