After the Paris massacres, there was a lot of chatter that GOP primary voters would now get serious and turn away from Donald Trump. I think there is now a consensus that two weeks on there is no sign of that happening.
Kevin Drum just wrote that the attacks seem to have changed nothing. And using poll data from all voters, that is true. But if you limit the universe to the likely voters who make it through the polling firms’ filters, you get a different story:
This is not conclusive, of course, since it took several days for the jump in Trump’s standing to show up. But I do think that it means that Drum can’t really conclude that the attacks have had no effect on the race. From here, it looks like they have helped the Donald.