I think so, but there are reasons to believe that is wrong.
Sean Trende has an electoral simulator not unlike my own. Of course, I cannot get into his code, so I’m not sure what the underlying assumptions are about demographic change in 2012-16. But here is what you get if you assume that African-American and white turnout will return to 2004 levels, while the GOP loses one-third of the Latino votes that Romney got in 2012.
Oh, wait, that is the same as the 2012 map. For the GOP to win, even under the above assumptions, you need to up its share of national white vote from 60% to 64%. His model shows Virginia flipping at 62%, Florida and Ohio at 63%, and then Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin for the win at 64%.
I think the difference is that I assume (based on past elections) that the white vote in the Badger State is far stickier than those flighty white people over in Michigan.
In the Trende model, a 3-point uniform swing with high white turnout will swing Wisconsin but not Michigan. That does not seem unreasonable, but it gets you the rather odd electoral map on the right.
Of course, if you assume that Trump will lose half the Latino and Asian-American vote, as opposed to a third of the former and none of the latter, then all the above assumptions won’t help. Under the Trende model, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia flip, but the Democratic candidate still wins.
I do not really believe a scenario in which Virginia flips that early despite a crash in the GOP share of the Latino and Asian-American vote, but Trende is paid to do this stuff and I am not. He is also very smart. And the general result seems to hold. For a GOP candidate to win while alienating minorities, they need an electoral path right through the old Rust Belt, be it Wisconsin or Michigan or Pennsylvania.
It is interesting to run the table in the other direction: at what swing among white voters do Democrats start expanding the 2008 map? (Moving the needle on Latinos and Asians alone flips only North Carolina.) That map is regained at 43% of white voters nationally, a three-point swing over 2012. (In 2008, exit polls showed Barack Obama winning a solid majority of white votes outside the old Confederacy.) At 46%, Georgia and Missouri flip. Arizona goes blue at 47%. Texas joins them at 49%, along with Montana and the Dakotas. Finally, at a ten-point uniform swing among white voters Mississippi and South Carolina vote Democratic ... even though that means the Republican is still getting almost 80% of white voters in those states.
The sad thing, though, is realizing how unlikely it seems that any Democrat could get as high a vote share as 20% in those states. I find it much much easier to imagine the entire Rust Belt swinging red than the deep south going blue, let alone Texas.