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June 11, 2015

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Value judgment time!

Is this a good thing or bad thing for Mexican politics? Especially wrt stability and getting laws passed?

I honestly can't say. With respect to both of the issues that you've mentioned, Mexico has done pretty well. The Peña administration has not lacked for getting serious reforms passed ... and inasmuch as those reforms have been watered down (see the recent corruption bill) it's because the PRI wants them watered down.

Going ahead, though, it seems as though there is potential for instability. First, some of the new parties (the Greens and Panal, clearly, the Humanists I suspect as well) are entirely corrupt. And I would venture that the remnants of the PRD are in danger of going that way, what with their ideological air being sucked out by Morena and the M.C. This would not be a problem in a better-policed system, but we have the country we have.

Second, I would worry that the PRI could wind up with a hegemony by default, winning the presidency with a consistent plurality and ekeing a working majority with the corrupt small parties. That would be terrible for democracy.

Note: I do not think this will ever happen. However...

What would the effect of such a splintering be on the US political scene? Yes, I know the Reps and Dems are big tent parties and have wings with all sorts.

However.

If you replicated (through whatever mechanism) the same situation in the US, would it make things worse or better? Or more of the blundering same?

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