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January 27, 2015

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I found this pretty thought-provoking. In general, I have been thinking pretty hard about what the low oil prices meant, and reading Isabella Kaminska's efforts on this topic as well. I have also been trying to understand what's going on in Nigeria and Angola as well, though I think that's a lost cause. Going back to this post, I've googled some, and found lots of investment sites talkin 'bout some contango with the eye towards $80 in 2018. I do not have any sort of grip on the mechanics, so I really appreciate some of this "ground floor" element to your blogging. Concur that while investment may slow, the sentiments that the people at alphaville have been pushing about the easy deployability of capital toward fracking makes said immediate slowed investment not as important.

Right now, I think that the ultimate problem with oil demand relate to political questions of what is "investible". I think that overall market size is what matters to Saudi policy inclinations, and to echo, I suspect that "conservation" is probably the key enemy here. The Saudis do not want to overprice any big investment project that depends on lots of oil to build or run.

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