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January 08, 2015

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Noel, I'm not somebody to say that "oil is all about OPEC", but doesn't it strike you that people have turned too quickly to think that oil should now be priced as a commodity in a competitive market, with basically no regard for production decisions of Saudi Arabia? I'm all on board with the thesis that U.S shale will keep producing but from that thesis it doesn't follow that oil prices will stay very low for the next year. Put differently, what do you think about the determinants of Saudi Arabia's production decisions?

I'll answer this one in a post, FS. It's a great question.

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